Typhoon Track Prediction using Bayesian Statistics Methods

Abstract

In this dissertation we predict the track of typhoons using Bayesian principal component regression model and Bayesian hierarchical regression model based on the wind field data. The data is obtained at each time point and we applied the Bayesian principal component regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the time point. Moreover, we applied the Bayesian hierarchical regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the each typhoon. We show that the results in this dissertation are close to the result of Japanese Meteorological Agency, it is possible to predict the track of typhoon very accurately using only statistical model.