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Typhoon Track Prediction using Bayesian Statistics Methods

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Authors
한민규
Advisor
이재용
Major
자연과학대학 통계학과
Issue Date
2015-02
Publisher
서울대학교 대학원
Keywords
Bayesian principal component regression modelBayesian hierarchical regression modelTyphoon trackWind field
Description
학위논문 (박사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 통계학과, 2015. 2. 이재용.
Abstract
In this dissertation we predict the track of typhoons using Bayesian principal component regression model and Bayesian hierarchical regression model based on the wind field data. The data is obtained at each time point and we applied the Bayesian principal component regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the time point. Moreover, we applied the Bayesian hierarchical regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the each typhoon. We show that the results in this dissertation are close to the result of Japanese Meteorological Agency, it is possible to predict the track of typhoon very accurately using only statistical model.
Language
English
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10371/121152
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College of Natural Sciences (자연과학대학)Dept. of Statistics (통계학과)Theses (Ph.D. / Sc.D._통계학과)
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