Mathematical model for scrub typhus and its application to disease control

Abstract

Recently, the incidence rate of scrub typhus increase rapidly in the Republic of Korea. Previous researches have pointed out that climate change and increase of outdoor activities may cause the increase trend, but the clear explanation with definite evidences still remains unknown. In this paper, I proposed application of mathematical models to define these unknown aspects, since mathematical models have been used as valuable methodology in infectious diseases epidemiology. Even though there were several researches done with mathematical methodologies, the results barely consider the practical aspects. The impracticality of mathematical models are derived from lack of underlying information, so it is not feasible to avoid even in this study. Considering these unavoidable limitation, we focus on maximizing practical application of the models with parameters accorded with context of Korea. The results indicate that effect of control either rodents or mite are very limited. Therefore reducing contact rate between human and mite is a practical and effective strategy, but intensity of control may not be sufficient due to growing number of mite population.