Toward a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan ; challenges and lessons from history

Abstract

Abstract Toward a Negotiated Settlement in Afghanistan

Challenges and Lessons from history

Hamid Abdulhai Formuli Development Cooperation Policy Program Graduate School of International Studies Seoul National University

Since the end of WWII, insurgency became the most affluent form of armed conflict. According to existent data

almost half of Insurgency cases have been ended through a negotiated settlement. Considering Challenging political and security transitions as well as unstable economic conditions, the Afghan government and its partners reached to a conclusion that a political settlement offers the best solution to end the conflict in Afghanistan. While a negotiated settlement becomes more and more desirable, prospects of achieving it, gets more doubtable. This paper assess multiple challenges facing Afghan peace process and drawing lesson learned from history that could inform the way out of conflict in Afghanistan with particular focus on problems such as: conflict ripeness, spoilers problem, in addition to that, the role of Pakistan and other regional countries in success or failure of such a process. It will study historical cases of insurgency and a series of steps that brought about a negotiated settlement and further examine application of those steps in context of Afghan conflict and draw on implications that it would offer. This paper argues that in Afghanistan, a military stalemate has been already reached with prospects of military prevalence further diluted. To reach next steps in negotiation process, engaging the region with a view of achieving concerted regional efforts for peace and addressing insurgencys safe haven, are pillars for success. Increasing convergence of interests among countries of the region on achieving mid to long term stability in Afghanistan offers signs of hope, but success much depends on governments ability to direct this convergence in framework of a regional task force for peace.