Measuring the Length of Period for the Long-Run Equilibrium in a Cointegration Relation

Abstract

In economics the period of "long-run" often signifies the length of time within which transient fluctuations disappear, and a system comes back to an equilibrium state (or path). Among some interesting cases of long run analysis, the concept of cointegration is a relatively new concept of the long run equilibrium. This paper discusses how to determine the length of the long-run period for a cointegration relation. In an application to a consumption-income relation for three countries. U.S., Germany and Japan, we found that the length of the long-run period for the relation for these countries is about two to three years.