A Study on the United States Coercive Diplomacy Strategy toward North Korea: the case of George W. Bush Administration, 2001-2009

Abstract

The George W. Bush administrations policy toward North Korea was primarily based on hardline policy of strong pressure, while strongly criticizing its former administrations engagement policy as ineffective and failed. However, North Koreas first nuclear test was the watershed event that changed Bush administrations policy toward North Korea from hardline to accommodation. But despite the policy shift, Bush administration couldnt achieve disablement process in North Korea. This thesis made an attempt to analyze factors of Bush administrations policy toward North Korea which led to success of failure to its objectives, with the analytical framework based on the theory of Coercive Diplomacy. For phase one (January 2001- October 2006), which primarily comprised of hardline policy toward North Korea, it turned out that the US coercer strategy of tacit ultimatum during this phase is lack of proportionality and reciprocity with high level of coercive credibility. However, in phase two (November 2006 – October 2007), which was basically accommodative approach dominant period, it appears that Bush administration employed strategy of gradual turning of the screw mixed with carrot and stick approach. And all three element of coercer strategy were well balanced along with strong international support and limited domestic opposition, which led to limited success for US. In phase three (November 2007 – January 2009), US strategy lacked balance with decreased reciprocity and coercive credibility along with lack of active support from the regional actors. And these factors led to failure of Bush administration to complete disablement process in North Korea in the end. Applying this analytic framework, US coercive diplomacy strategy turned out to be successful only when US coercer strategy of proportionality, reciprocity and coercive credibility are well balanced along with active international and domestic support.