S-Space College of Natural Sciences (자연과학대학) Dept. of Statistics (통계학과) Theses (Master's Degree_통계학과)
How many participated in candlelight protests? Statistical Counting of Dynamic Crowd
촛불 시위에 얼마나 많은 사람들이 참여 했는가? 동적 군중의 통계적 집계
- 자연과학대학 통계학과
- Issue Date
- 서울대학교 대학원
- 학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 자연과학대학 통계학과, 2018. 2. 장원철.
- The recent controversy on the size of crowd at candlelight protests raises a serious question on how to estimate the crowd size. There was a significant discrepancy between police and protest organizers on the size of crowds at each protest. While police often reports the crowd at its peak, organizers want to count anyone who participated in the event from its start to finish.
We propose a new counting method using an inverse probability weight estimator. Assuming that the arrival and departure times of crowd can be estimated using additional survey, we estimate the probability of a subject being in the events at a given time. We also propose a bootstrap procedure to obtain the variance of the estimator. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method with simulation studies and the data from Korea’s March for Science, a global event across the world on Earth day April 22, 2017.