Causal Inference of Corruption Perception: An Experimental Survey on the Framing Effect of Presidential Scandal in South Korea

Abstract

The core purpose of this research is to find out the causal inference of high-level corruption on corruption perception. In order to get a concrete picture of causal relationship, I conducted an experimental survey using the framing effect of recent presidential scandal of South Korea and the verdict as treatments. Also, so as to have comprehensive understanding of corruption, the definition of corruption is not limited to political realm, and distinctive individual consciousness regarding corruption were measured

The willingness to engage in corruption, the expectation of future corruption and the willingness to interfere others corrupt behavior. This research evinces that the indication of high-level corruption and verdict both reduce the willingness to engage in corruption, decrease the expectation for future corruption occurrence and increase the willingness to interfere others corrupt behavior. Shift of corruption measures is more eminent with additional verdict information compared to the shift observed only with the information of recent presidential scandal. Also, in-depth analysis using ordered logit regression analysis indicates that verdict satisfaction is strong explanatory aspect for the corruption expectation and the willingness to interfere corruption. This bolsters the collective action theory of Ostrom that repeated games between players may establish inter-regulating system to benefit the entire society due to growing contingent self-commitment. Moreover, successful experience of monitoring and sanctioning may reinforce the mutual assurance that each member of the society will not engage in corruption for its profound cost when caught. Regardless of its academic achievements and its expected importance in the future to better handle corruption in reality, this research encompasses few limits. The survey experiment provides indirect causal inference due to the possibility of contamination on treatment effects. Also the scale of the survey experiment is limited to the case study of South Korea, and the extent of respondents is limited to 684. Further investigation of causal inference of corruption beyond the case study of South Korea for extended time of observation would provide more precise causal relationship regarding the issue.