Probabilistic simulation of power transmission systems affected by hurricane events based on fragility and AC power flow analyses

Abstract

This paper presents a technique for probabilistic simulation of power transmission systems under hurricane events. The study models the power transmission system as a network of connected individual components, which are subjected to wind-induced mechanical failure and power flow constraints. The mechanical performance of the transmission conductors are evaluated using an efficient modal superpoistion method and extreme value analysis. The fragilty model is then developed using first order reliability theory. The asssumptions of the method are discussed, and its accuracy is thoroughly investigated. The component fragilities are used to map the damage of hurricane events to the failure probabilities. The electircal performance of the components is modeled through an AC-based power flow cascading failure model, to capture the unique phenomena affecting power systems, such as line overflow and load shedding. The methodology is demonstrated by a case study involving a hurricane moving across the IEEE 30-bus transmission network. This technique aims at helping decision makers gain fundamental insights on the modeling and quantification of power system performance during hurricane events.