Airblast Variability and Reliability-Based Design for Protective Structures

Abstract

An understanding of airblast uncertainty allows reliability-based load factors to be calculated. Reliability-based load factors are influenced by the variability of model error, explosive mass and range distance, and are estimated for reliability levels of 0.05 to 0.99 for military, civilian and terrorist munitions. Structural reliabilities are then calculated for reinforced concrete columns, and compared to target values. It was found that RC columns designed to existing standards have a significant margin of safety conditional on successful detonation of the explosive and assuming a relatively low variability of range or explosive mass.