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공공기관장 재임기간에 대한 영향요인 분석 : 정권교체시기와 경영평가결과를 중심으로

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Authors
김원영
Advisor
엄석진
Issue Date
2019-08
Publisher
서울대학교 대학원
Keywords
기관장재임기간임기엽관제실적제경영평가
Description
학위논문(석사)--서울대학교 대학원 :행정대학원 공기업정책학과,2019. 8. 엄석진.
Abstract
The length of time a leader stays in an organization, ie the tenure, is a factor that has a profound effect on organizational performance in that it is the period during which leadership is expressed. Efforts are therefore needed to find a desirable and optimal tenure to help achieve the organization's goals. The term of office(the tenure) is an important condition of leadership. To know this, it is important to find out which mechanism determines the term of office. Knowing how the term of office is determined makes it possible to explore the desirable term of office.
In this study, the main influence factors on the director's tenure were found in the mode of control of the director's power. One is a political control called a spoils system, and the other is a performance control called a merit system. Theoretically, the former is in contact with the theory of Politics-management continuum, and the latter is connected with the theory of Politics-administration dichotomy. The director's tenure was assumed to be shortened or extended through the functioning of political and performance control.
In this study, the time of regime change was defined as a variable of political factors and the result of management evaluation as a variable of performance factors. The time of regime change means a period from the date of appointment of the director to the date of inauguration of the next administration(the day of inauguration of the next president).
The results of the management evaluation were based on the average of the conversion scores obtained during the term of office by converting the institutional assessment grades (six classes) from 2007 to 2017 and the institutional director assessment grades (six classes) to the conversion scores (100, 90, 80, 70, 60, 50) by grade. In addition, institutional types, types of origin, regions of origin, appointees, remuneration levels, gender, and age were placed as control variables.
First, we looked at the effects of these variables on the term of office through multiple regression analyses. It was found that the time of regime change among the independent variables has a positive effect on the term of office under the significance level of 0.01. This means that the later a regime change takes place, the longer he is in office. On the other hand, it was found that the results of the management assessment among the independent variables had a significant level of 0.346, which is not related to the term of office. Other control variables, such as remuneration level, institutional type, appointment authority, type of origin, region of origin, gender, age, etc., were also not statistically significant.
In this study, we tried survival analysis in order to find out the factors of influence during their tenure. Methods For survival analysis, Life Table Analysis, Kaplan-Meier Analysis and Cox Proportional Risk Models were adopted. Life table analysis and Kaplan-Meier analysis attempted analysis by converting independent variables, which are continuous variables, into categorical variables. Life table analysis confirmed that if there is a regime change in office according to the Gehan's Wilcoxon Method, the term of office will be different. However, the results of the management evaluation did not affect the term of office. Kaplan-Meier's analysis confirmed that the regime change affects the term of office. The KM survival function graph showed that there was a high probability of cumulative survival in the absence of regime change over all periods. However, the results of the management evaluation, did not have a significant impact on the term of office.
Life table analysis and KM analysis alone are not enough to explain the entire model. Therefore, the effects of various confounding variables are analyzed by applying a Cox proportional risk model that can be adequately compensated. As a result of the analysis of the Cox proportional risk model, the time of regime change among the independent variables was having a significant effect at the significant level of 0.01. Since the regression coefficient is -0.023, the longer (the later) the regime changes, the lower the risk rate, the more positive the term of office. On the other hand, the results of the management assessment were not statistically significant because the level of significance was greater than 0.05. The remaining control variables also had no effect on the term of office.
Therefore, the hypothesis 1 of the research model (the spoils system affects) is adopted, but hypothesis 2 (the merit system affects) is rejected. These conclusions are supported by four different analyses: regression analysis, Life table analysis, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and Cox proportional risk model analysis.
These findings may contradict the fundamental purpose of the management evaluation system, which has been the basis of the policies of public organizations.
It can be said that the spoils system is necessary in terms of democratic control by political power. However, the findings reveal uncomfortable truths about the discrepancy between the system and operation. What they want to show to the public is the merit system, but what political power actually wants is the spoils system. Such contradictions could lead to distrust of politics and disappointment in the ruling party. Efforts to resolve discrepancies in the system and operations appear to be needed, including finding ways to enhance the effectiveness of the merit system.
리더가 조직에 머무는 기간, 즉 재임기간(在任期間)은 ‘리더십이 발현되는 기간’이라는 점에서 조직성과에 심대한 영향을 미치는 요인이다. 따라서 조직의 목표를 달성하는데 도움이 되는 바람직한 최적의 재임기간을 찾기 위한 노력이 필요하다. 재임기간은 리더십의 중요한 발현조건인 것이다. 이를 알기 위해서는 재임기간이 어떤 요인에 의해 결정되는지 알아내는 것이 중요하다. 재임기간이 어떻게 결정되는지를 알아야 바람직한 재임기간을 탐색하는 연구도 가능해진다.
본 연구는 국내 공공기관장의 재임기간에 영향을 주는 요인이 무엇인지에 대해 탐구하였다. 기관장의 재임기간이 경영성과에 어떤 영향을 미치는지에 대해서는 선행연구가 존재하지만, 기관장의 재임기간이 어떻게 결정되는지에 대해서는 연구가 미진하기 때문이다. 우리나라 공공기관장의 임기는 3년으로 정해져 있다. 하지만 어떤 기관장은 임기의 절반도 못 채우고 퇴진하고, 어떤 기관장은 연임을 거듭하여 임기보다 훨씬 오래 재임한다. 본 연구는 이러한 현상에 대한 상식적인 호기심에서 출발했다.
본 연구에서는 정권교체시기와 경영평가결과가 재임기간에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 중요한 요인이라고 가정했다. 정권교체시기는 기관장 임명일부터 차기 정부 출범일(차기 대통령 취임일)까지의 기간을 의미한다. 경영평가결과는 2007년도부터 2017년도까지의 기관평가등급과 2008년도부터 2012년까지의 기관장평가등급을 등급별 환산점수(100, 90, 80, 70, 60, 50)로 전환하여 재임기간 동안 획득한 환산점수의 평균으로 하였다. 이밖에 기관유형, 출신유형, 출신지역, 임명권자, 보수수준, 성별, 연령을 통제변수로 두었다.
이론적으로 본다면 정권교체시기와 경영평가결과는 각기 엽관제(獵官制, spoils system)와 실적제(實積制, merit system)를 상징한다. 우리나라에서 엽관제는 ‘낙하산 인사’라는 부정적인 의미를 내포하고 있다. 엽관제가 근대 민주주의 발전과정에서 뚜렷한 위치를 점하고 있음에도 불구하고, 우리나라에서는 정실인사(情實人事)와 보은인사(報恩人事) 정도로 평가 절하되고 있는 실정이다.
반면에 실적제는 공공기관의 투명성과 효율성을 높이기 위한 유효한 수단으로 간주되고 있고, 공공기관장의 인사는 실적제를 중심으로 제도적 발전을 이뤄온 것이 사실이다. 임원추천위원회의 막중한 역할, 경영평가결과에 따른 연임 및 해임 조항 등은 우리나라 공공기관장 인사가 실적제를 따르고 있다는 사실을 보여준다.
하지만 다중회귀분석과 생명표 분석, Kaplan Meier 분석, Cox 비례위험모형 분석 등을 수행한 결과는 우리나라의 공공기관장 인사는 아직도 엽관제가 지배하고 있음을 보여주었다. 기관장의 능력과 성과보다는 정권이 언제 바뀌느냐가 해당 기관장의 재임기간을 결정한다는 뜻이다.
관료집단(혹은 공공기관)에 대한 민주적 통제라는 당위성에서 볼 때 엽관제가 지배적인 현상을 비판적 시각에서만 볼 수는 없다. 하지만 연구결과는 제도와 운영의 불일치라는 불편한 진실을 드러내고 있다. 국민에게 보여주고 싶은 모습은 실적제이나, 실제로 정치권력이 원하는 것은 엽관제인 것이다. 이러한 모순은 정치에 대한 불신과 집권정당에 대한 실망으로 이어질 수 있다. 실적제의 실효성을 높이는 방안을 강구하는 등 제도와 운영의 불일치를 해소하려는 노력이 필요해 보인다.
Language
kor
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10371/161698

http://dcollection.snu.ac.kr/common/orgView/000000156464
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