담뱃세개편의효과분석:구조적모형 추정을통한수요·공급·사회후생효과분석

Abstract

본연구는한국의담배시장의수요함수를추정하였다.기존의선행연구 와다르게본연구에서는구조적모형(Structural Estimation)추정을 통해담배시장의수요함수를분석하였다. BLP(1995)모형을 이용하여 수요함수를추정하였다.수요함수추정을통해수요의가격탄력성과

교차탄력성을도출하였다.수요의가격탄력성은세재개편이전보다 이후에더탄력적으로추정되었다.담배를구입하는소비자들이가격 에대해좀더민감하게변했다고할수있다.교차탄력성은세재개편 이전과이후모두0에가까운값으로추정되었다.성별에따라담배의 특성이효용에미치는효과는남자보다여자가담배의상품특성에좀더 민감하게반응하는것으로추정되었다.수요함수추정을 이용하여개별 담배의한계비용을도출하였다.개별담배의한계비용은500원∼600 원사이로추정되었다.수요와한계비용의결과를이용하여정부의세 재개편의사회후생분석을하였다.소비자의손실이정부,담배생산자, 최종소매업자에게전환되는정도와크기를도출하였다.마지막으로정 부의금연종합대책에명시된가향담배규제에대한정책시뮬레이션을 분석하였다.시장에서가향담배퇴출되는상황을가정하고분석한결과 담배를구입하는소비자들이고타르담배로이동하는것으로나타났다

This paper aims to verify the effect of tax reform in the Korea cigarette

industry. First, I estimate a random coefficient model of demand for

cigarettes. Unlike previous studies, this study analyzed the demand

function of the cigarette market using a structural estimation. The

estimation procedures are followed by the BLP(1995) and Nevo(2001)

model. The own price elasticity of cigarette is estimated -0.15 before

the tax reform. And it decreased to - 0.24 after the tax reform in 2015.

Consumers who buy cigarettes are more sensitive to prices after the tax

reform. Cross elasticity was estimated to be close to zero both before

and after the tax reform. The marginal cost of individual cigarettes

was derived using demand function estimates. The marginal cost of

individual cigarettes was estimated to be between 500 and 600. Using

the results of demand and marginal cost, I analyzed the social welfare

of tax reform. And I quantify the value of consumer losses and cal-

culate the transition value to government, cigarettes producers, and

retailers. Finally, I analyze the policy simulation of new cigarette reg-

ulation(ban on sales of flavored cigarette) specified in the government.

According to the results, consumers who buy flavored cigarettes would

move to high tar cigarettes.