EC의 금융통합과 금융산업개편 - 이론 및 실증분석

Abstract

This paper develops a theory of an endogenous financial structure and applies it empirically to 11 countries consisting mainly of EC countries (U.S.A., Japan, U.K., Germany, France, Canada, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, and Spain) and Korea. Based on this analysis, this paper tries to speculate on the financial structure in the integrated and globalized world financial industry, and then to evaluate the EC"s policy to adopt a universal banking system and discuss the prospect of the integrated EC financial structure. The theory and empirical test results support the following implications. First, the financial structure tends to converge to a certain stable equilibrium without a tendency of one financing method dominating the other as the size of financial market grows. The results based on the panel data suggest that the importance (ratio) of direct or ( to) indirect financing tends to converge to the sample mean as the size of financial market expands. These results seem to imply that a competitive equilibrium in the deregulated financial industry will consist of both specialized and multi-product financial firms, resulting in a mixed form of specialized and universal banking systems. Second, as world financial markets fully integrate and all the countries consequently face a single, common world market, the financial structures of individual countries will become increasingly similar. Third, the choice of banking system strongly influences the process of convergence to the final equilibrium. The results based on the panel data imply that the universal banking system tends to expedite the process of the convergence of the financial structure to the sample mean and vice versa for the specialized banking system. Therefore, it concludes that the EC"s choice of universal banking system will expedite the financial structure of the integrated EC to converge to the equilibrium structure which may consist of specialized as well as universal banks without any implication of ultimate dominance of one over another.