체제이행의 정치: 헝가리의 사례연구

Abstract

The paper examines the changes in the domestic political order of Hungary in the late 1980s. By analyzing the processes of Hungary"s political transition, this study aims at displaying the importance of the role of political choice in regime transformation. The Hungarian case shows that a small circle of elites both within the regime and the opposition played a decisive role in making of democracy. At the same time, it demonstrates that calculations of costs and benefits by main political actors and their strategic choices were highly dependent on the specific transitional context within which they were operating.

The paper addresses three main questions. First, what caused the cracks in the regime and induced it to move toward liberalization? It is argued that the decline of K？d？rist legitimacy resulted in a leadership change in the MSzMP and proved the catalytic factor in the emergence of independent organizations of society, and that the post-K？d？r leadership launched liberalization in an attempt to solve the problem of legitimation in a period of economic stabilization which featured unprecedented austerity measures.

Second, how and why did what began as a project of liberalization culminate in the launching of democratization? It is argued that liberalization failed due to the conflicts between the conservative and reformist camps within the regime as well as the proliferation of oppositional organizations, and that when faced with the choice between restoration and democratization, the regime core opted for the latter since it was perceived to be less costly than a repressive solution.

Third, how and why did an attempt at limited democratization falter and lead eventually to the establishment of democratic rule? It is argued that the emergence of a united opposition and the strengthening of reform forces resulted in the shift in the configuration of power in favor of reformers within the regime, and that the political pact established between the reformers and the moderate opposition, who saw themselves as future coalition partners, paved the way for the coming of democracy in Hungary.