산채류의 수급예측 및 경제성분석

Abstract

This study was carried out to forecast demand for and supply of wild vegetables and to analyze profitability of cultivating them in the Republic of Korea. To collect the raw data on cost of cultivating wild vegetables, interviews were held in Yangpyung-gun, Kyungkido and to forecast demand for and supply of them, domestic demand and supply function with the time series data for 1977-1995 were estimated by the regression analysis. Estimation results reveal that elasticities of demand for wild vegetables with respect to price and income are -1.8% and 2.6%. respectively, whereas elasticities of domestic supply with respect to price and rural wage are 1.9% and -0.8%. respectively. Based on the business as usual scenario, quantity demanded will be increased from 39,905 ton to 119,346 ton and quantity supplied will be from 18,497 to 27,822 ton in 1995-2010. Thus, domestic supply will contribute only 23.3% to the total consumption in 2000. whereas 46.4% in 1995. For the profitability of wild vegetable cultivation, the rate of net income(average 70.9%) is higher than that of other crop or vegetable cultivation(average 64.4%). In conclusion, it can be suggested that farmers in mountainous villages grow wild vegetables to increase their income utilizing the marginal farm lands.