SHERP

Prospects for Global Trade Imbalances

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Authors
Sachs, Jeffrey D
Issue Date
1988-03
Publisher
Seoul Journal of Economics
Citation
Seoul Journal of Economics 1(No.1 1988): 41-74
Keywords
trade imbalances; policy action for imbalances; three scenarios
Abstract
There is an unusual degree of uncertainty in early 1988 regarding the economic prospects of the major industrial economies. The puzzles in understanding the economic landscape abound. Was the worldwide stock market crash a signal "that something is seriously wrong in the world economy", as an international group of economists has recently maintained, or was it more simply a dramatic correction of speculative excesses of the previous twelve monthes? After all, despite the crash, the U.S. equity markets were slightly higher at the end of 1987 than 1986, and Japanese equities were significantly higher. Also puzzling is the behavior of trade balances and exchange rates. The dollar is now back to its 1980 levels vis-à-vis a basket of competing currencies, and yet the U.S. trade deficit remains at an all-time high. Is a correction "just around the corner", or has there been a more fundamental loss of U.S. competitiveness in recent years that will require yet a further decline in the dollar?
ISSN
1225-0279
Language
English
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10371/831
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College of Social Sciences (사회과학대학)Institute of Economics Research (경제연구소)Seoul Journal of EconomicsSeoul Journal of Economics vol.01(1) (Spring 1988)
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