S-Space College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (농업생명과학대학) Dept. of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering (생태조경·지역시스템공학부) Journal Papers (저널논문_생태조경·지역시스템공학부)
MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 산사태 발생가능성 예측
Prediction of Landslides Occurrence Probability under Climate Change using MaxEnt Model
- 김호걸; 이동근; 모용원; 길승호; 박찬; 이수재
- Issue Date
- 환경영향평가 Vol.22 No.1, pp. 39-50
- Occurrence of landslides has been increasing due to extreme weather events(e.g. heavy rainfall, torrential rains) by climate change. Pyeongchang, Korea had seriously been damaged by landslides caused by a typhoon, Ewiniar in 2006. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of landslides are increasing in summer due to torrential rain. Therefore, risk assessment and adaptation measure is urgently needed to build resilience. To support landslide adaptation measures, this study predicted landslides occurrence using MaxEnt model and suggested susceptibility map of landslides. Precipitation data of RCP 8.5 Climate change scenarios were used to analyze an impact of increase in rainfall in the future. In 2050 and 2090, the probability of landslides occurrence was predicted to increase. These were due to an increase in heavy rainfall and cumulative rainfall. As a result of analysis, factors that has major impact on landslide appeared to be climate factors, prediction accuracy of the model was very high(92%). In the future Pyeongchang will have serious rainfall compare to 2006 and more intense landslides area expected to increase. This study will help to establish adaptation measure against landslides due to heavy rainfall.