The DPRK Nuclear Crisis and Chinas Response

Abstract

The DPRK nuclear crisis has lasted for more than two decades. In the past 20 years, the international community, especially countries such as China who were connected to DPRK, had tried their best to cope with the crisis. This article analyzes the reasons and real purposes for the DPRKs nuclear tests. Through examining the origin and development of the Six-Party talks, the article concludes that the Six-Party talks were not complete failures and should be revived in the future. The article also analyzes the characteristics of Chinas policy toward the Korean peninsula and examines the changing Sino-DPRK relationship, and ends by concluding that China should develop a long-term strategy toward the Korean peninsula and change its diplomatic policy toward the DPRK. The first DPRK nuclear crisis broke out in 1992 and was died down with the signing of a Framework Agreement by the U.S. and DPRK in 1994. The second Korean nuclear crisis broke out in 2002 when DPRK violated this agreement, and the crisis reached a climax when the DPRK conducted its first nuclear test on October 9, 2006. Through much efforts made by the international community, the murky crisis has eased up, until the DPRK launched another so-called satellite or a long-range missile on April 5, 2009. When the international community condemned DPRKs activity as a provocation, DPRK retreated from the Six-Party talks as usual and conducted its second nuclear test on May 25, 2009. Following on the Cheonan incident and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, the tensions on Korean peninsula increased sharply and once again the DPRK nuclear crisis caught the worlds critical gaze. In 2011, the world witnessed the death of the tough leader, Kim Jong Il and his sons subsequent rise to power. Since the successor Kim Jong-un is so young and had studied abroad, the international community anticipated that the young leader would change his fathers hard line policies. Unfortunately, the young leader adopted an even tougher policy. He pushed aside his fathers promise of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and declared that DPRK a nuclear state in its new constitution in 2012.1) According to the new strategy, DPRK launched another missile at the end of 2012, and conducted a third nuclear test. The DPRK nuclear crisis again peaked on the international stage. The international community always wondered about the purposes that underlie these actions of the DPRK, which have increased tensions in such a short term. However, whatever the political and economic consequences may be for Pyongyang, the most important goal for the international community is to focus on how to cope with the DPRK nuclear crisis. This article analyzes the reasons and purposes for the DPRKs nuclear tests, considers the origin and development of the Six-Party talks, and concludes that the Six-Party talks, while frustrating to various parties, have not been a total failure since they were moving in the right direction. The article also examines the changing Sino-DPRK relationship and concludes that China should develop a long-term strategy toward the Korean peninsula and change its diplomatic policy toward the DPRK.

북한 핵위기는 지난 20여 년간 지속되어 왔다. 지난 20년 간 북한과 밀접한 관계를 맺은 중국을 포함한 국제사회는 이 위기에 대처하기 위해 최선의 노력을 기울여 왔다. 본 논문은 북한이 핵실험을 하는 이유와 진짜 목적을 분석하는 것이다. 본 논문은 6자회담의 기원과 발전을 검토한 뒤, 6자회담이 완전히 실패한 것이 아니며 다시 부활되어야 한다고 주장한다. 또한 본 논문은 중국의 대 한반도 정책의 특징을 분석하고 중국과 북한의 관계 변화를 살펴본 뒤, 중국이 한반도에 대하여 장기 전략을 발전시킴으로써 대북외교정책을 변화시켜야 한다는 결론을 내린다.