기대성 충격으로서의 미국 경기선행지표

Abstract

A current theme in the literature on business cycle fluctuations is the

importance of expectational shocks that change the beliefs of agents

concerning the future level of aggregate activity, but which do not reflect

real movements in the fundamentals. In this paper, we employ the ASANBER

survey of professional forecasters to investigate the extent to which

errors in the initial announcements of the index of leading economic

indicators are a source of this type of expectational shock. We investigate

the time period 1968-1990 and find that these errors are an important source

of such shocks after 1976.