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Measurement of energy security in the electricity industry and its determinants: 12 Selected Latin American Countries

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dc.contributor.advisor김연배-
dc.contributor.author세르지오-
dc.date.accessioned2017-07-13T08:55:27Z-
dc.date.available2017-07-13T08:55:27Z-
dc.date.issued2014-02-
dc.identifier.other000000018154-
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10371/119941-
dc.description학위논문 (박사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2014. 2. 김연배.-
dc.description.abstract중남미 지역은 풍부한 지하자원 및 천애의 자연환경으로 잘 알려져 있으며, 국가간 경제교류가 활발이 이루어지고 있어 국제 경제의 전략 지역으로 성장하고 있다. 또한, 강력한 민주화 정책, 지역통합, 책임있는 거시경제의 채택, 화폐 및 회계의 정책적 지원과 자유무역과 민간부분의 적극적인 참여로 상당한 수준의 사회-경제적으로 거시적인 경제발전을 이루었으며, 최근의 국제 금융위기에도 불구하고 지속적인 경제성장을 보이고 있다.
OECD 국가인 멕시코와 칠레, 그 인접 개발도상국인 콜롬비아와 코스타리카의 활발한 경제교류에서 알 수 있듯이, 중남미지역의 특별한 지정학적 위치 및 다양성으로 인하여 동남아시아, 중앙아시아, 중동 및 아프리카 지역과는 차별화 되어, 경제 및 에너지분야 이슈의 연구에 있어, 보다 가치 있는 성과를 얻을 것으로 기대한다.
이러한 상황과 유리한 조건들을 바탕으로 중남미 국가간 협력을 통한 투자확대로, 세계에서 가장 큰 경제지역을 지향하고 있으나, 전력산업이 경제성장을 뒷받침하지 못하고 있는 상황이고, 이는 잘 알려져 있는 바와 같이, 대부분의 국가들은 지하자원 분야뿐 아니라 전력생산 분야의 에너지프로젝트개발을 위한 큰 잠재능력은 가지고는 있지만, 전력산업이 빠른 경제성장 및 새로운 사업모델개발을 뒷받침하지 못하고 있기 때문이며, 이러한 전력확보의 불확실성은 전력산업의 민영화 이후 더욱 두드러지게 나타나고 있다.
본 논문에서는, 중남미 12개국(멕시코, 과테말라, 엘살바도르, 온두라스, 니카라과, 코스타리카, 파나마, 콜롬비아, 에콰도르, 페루, 칠레 그리고 아르헨티나)의 전력산업을 평가하는데 초점을 맞추고, 안정적 전력산업의 평가 지표 및 조건에 대한 분석을 하였다. 본 연구에 사용된 전력산업 지표는 경제학 및 전력분야에서 국제적으로 통용되는 가장 보편적인 기준을 바탕으로, 전력산업에 영향을 주는 지표 분석을 수행하였으며, 지표간 상호연계성을 가지는 단순 및 합성 지표를 활용하여 국가의 전력산업을 평가하였다.
이러한 주요 영향요인 분석과정을 거쳐, 전력산업에 영향을 미치는 내/외부적 상황 연구를 위한, 안정적 전력공급 평가지표를 제안하였으며, 본 논문에서 제안한 지표를 통하여 중남미 국가들을 분석한 결과, 칠레, 콜롬비아, 페루, 에콰도르는 양호한 평가를 받았으며, 대부분의 남미지역 국가들은 중-상위 범위의 수준에 있음을 확인하였다. 본 논문이 제안한 분석기법의 신뢰성을 저하시키는 원인으로는 전력산업을 구성하는 다양한 전력시스템에 기인한다.
안정적 전력확보는 천연 지하자원뿐 아니라 전력인프라도 크게 영향을 미친다. 그러나, 지정학적으로 천연 지하자원이 부족한 국가인 경우는, 3가지 경우에 대한 조사를 병행하였으며, 이러한 국가들은 신-재생 에너지에 기반한 전원공급원 다양화(Energy Mix)로 전력공급능력을 개선시킬 수 있다. 발전, 송전, 배전에 이르는 전력시스템의 운영 능력은 전력 인프라 및 품질관리 능력에 크게 영향을 받으며, 이러한 품질관리 기준을 만족하지 않을 경우, 전력시스템 붕괴 및 전력확보의 불확실성은 증가하게 된다.
본 논문에서 연구한 중남미 국가들의 안정적 전력공급능력 확보는 내/외부적인 요소에 영향을 받기 쉬우므로, 정부가 혁신적인 결정을 하는 중요한 역할을 해줄 것을 제안하며, 또한, 안정적 전력공급 운영능력 향상을 위한 장려정책 등의 지원이 동반 되어야 한다. 재화의 수출 및 자원개발에 있어, 정확한 사업관리 시스템구축이 필요하며, 사회-경제적 요구에 부흥하는 견고한 전력인프라 확충 및 충분한 지하자원에 기반한 새로운 사업모델 및 대규모 전력프로젝트 개발을 위한 적극적인 투자지원정책 및 투자를 유도하면서 전력인프라를 확충하기 위한 적정한 전력시장가격의 형성되어야 한다. 마지막으로 에너지보호, 수요관리 프로그램 및 안정적 전력공급 수준을 개선할 수 있는 단계별 프로그램 수립 등이 필요하다.
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dc.description.abstractThe Latin American region is well known for its wealth in terms of natural, mineral, and hydrocarbon resources. In addition, it represents a strategic geographical zone where international trade is growing as a result of markets expansion. The involved nations have accomplished some socio-political as well as macroeconomic developments, which have been supported with the enforcement of democratization, regional integration, the adoption of responsible macroeconomic decisions, monetary and fiscal policies, and openness to free trade and private-sector participation. The region has shown stable economic growth despite the recent international financial and economic crises.
In this region, it is possible to find developing countries that are interacting in a sub-regional context with others that have a more advanced level of socio-economic development. For example, Mexico and Chile are members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), while Colombia and Costa Rica are aspiring to become members, and all of them are interacting with their neighbors. These special and dynamic characteristics differentiate this region from others around the world (Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa) and offer more value for conducting research studies regarding economic and energy issues.
All these situations have drawn the attention of the worlds largest economies to associate and cooperate in terms of bilateral investment. However, there is uncertainty about the security that can be offered by these countries domestic electricity industries. It is well known that most of the nations have potential for the development of energy projects at the resource and the power generation levels, but it is not clear whether their electricity industries can continue supporting fast economic growth and the development of new business in the zone. This insecurity was accentuated after the liberalization of their electricity industries.
The main focus of this research is to assess the performance of the electricity industrys supply chain in terms of energy security in 12 selected Latin American nations: Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and Argentina. We have considered an energy security area and a geographical region that have not yet been covered. With the support of the principal component analysis principles, we have transformed a set of simple and aggregated indicators into a set of relative indicators, which were evaluated under the basis of well recognized and accepted international standards as well as concepts from economic theory.
Through this process, it was possible to build a set of composite indicators represented as the supply security indexes along with the electricity industrys supply chain to study the influence of internal and external issues. Our results indicate that Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador are the most secure nations in terms of the security of the electricity supply. The outcomes for most of the studied countries are within the limits of a medium level of security. Currently, most of the countries in the South Latin American sub-region have a moderately high level of electricity supply security. The causes for the decreasing performance are the poor outcomes in terms of security in the different systems that compose their electricity industries.
Energy security in the electricity industry depends on the availability of energy resources as well as electrical infrastructure capacity. However, Chile, Guatemala and El Salvador, although are not fully rich in energy resources, have shown that insecurity levels can be improved by diversifying the number of suppliers as well as the nations energy mix based on renewable energy resources. Regarding the performance of electricity generation and the electricity transmission and distribution systems, security depends on upgrading electrical infrastructures and operating under quality standards. With the failure to comply with standards in certain activities of a given system, the risk of failures and insecurity levels increase.
The studied Latin American electricity industries performance, in terms of supply security, is susceptible to the influence of both internal and external factors. Our policy implications propose that governments are the key actors for adopting innovative decisions to strengthen energy security in the electricity industry. On the other hand, regulation is the tool for enforcing actions that aim to improve the industrys performance in terms of supply security. The implementation of an accurate management system in terms of resources development and import of commodities is required. The settlement of incentives for enticing investments to accomplish the development of new and large energy projects based on friendly energy resources is required, in addition to the establishment of robust and efficient electrical infrastructure capacities that respond to socio-economic demands. The establishment of energy conservation and demand-side management programs, as well as control systems to improve security levels and reduce intensities, is necessary.
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dc.description.tableofcontentsChapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY 1
1.2 THE LATIN AMERICAN REGION 2
1.2.1 Eeological context 2
1.2.2 Economic and socio-demographic contexts 3
1.2.3 Developments of the electricity industry 8
1.2.4 Importance of Latin America 12
1.3 CONCEPTUALIZATION OF ENERGY SECURITY 16
1.4 ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY AND ENERGY SECURITY 17
1.5 OWN DEFINITIONS 20
1.6 ORGANIZATION OF THIS RESEARCH STUDY 22

Chapter 2. Literature Review 29
2.1 ENERGY SECURITY IN TERMS OF AVAILABILITY 32
2.1.1 Resource estimates 32
2.1.2 Reserves and production levels 33
2.1.3 Access to primary energy resources 34
2.1.4 Diversity measurements 37
2.2 ENERGY SECURITY IN TERMS OF ACCESSIBILITY 55
2.2.1 Generation infrastructure efficiency 55
2.2.2 Electricity industry performance 60
2.2.3 Technical issues 67
2.3 ENERGY SECURITY IN TERMS OF AFFORDABILITY 70
2.3.1 Industrial organization 70
2.3.2 Cost-efficiency 74
2.3.3 Pricing 78
2.4 ENERGY SECURITY IN TERMS OF ACCEPTABILITY 83
2.5 LESSONS FROM LITERATURE REVIEW 88

Chapter 3. Model 91
3.1 DEFINING MEASUREMENTS 93
3.1.1 Single indicators 93
3.1.2 Aggregated indicators 94
3.1.3 Relative indicators 94
3.1.4 Composite indicators (indexes) 95
3.2 SECURITY OF SUPPLY INDEXES MODEL DESCRIPTION 96
3.3 DEVELOPING COMPOSITE SECURITY OF SUPPLY INDEXES 99
3.3.1 Energy resources system security of supply index 99
3.3.2 Electricity generation system security of supply index 100
3.3.3 Electricity transmission and distribution systems security of supply index 101
3.3.4 Electricity industry security of supply index 101
3.4 DIFFERENCES WITH OTHER STUDIES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 102

Chapter 4. Data and Model Integration 105
4.1 DATA 105
4.1.1 Limitations obtaining data from other countries 107
4.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK SELECTING INDICATORS 108
4.2.1 Selected indicators for the energy resources system 110
4.2.2 Selected indicators for the electricity generation system 117
4.2.3 Selected indicators for the electricity t&d systems 109
4.3 MODEL INTEGRATION 124
4.3.1 RSSSI's integration 133
4.3.2 GSSSI's integration 134
4.3.3 TDSSSI's integration 135
4.3.4 EISSI's integration 136

Chapter 5. Results Analysis and Discussion 138
5.1 SECURITY INDEXES RESULTS BY COUNTRY 138
5.1.1 Mexico's electricity industry 138
5.1.2 Guatemala's electricity industry 148
5.1.3 El Salvador electricity industry 158
5.1.4 Honduras electricity industry 168
5.1.5 Nicaragua's electricity industry 179
5.1.6 Costa Rica's electricity industry 189
5.1.7 Panama's electricity industry 199
5.1.8 Colombia's electricity industry 209
5.1.9 Ecuador's electricity industry 220
5.1.10 Peru's electricity industry 229
5.1.11 Chile's electricity industry 239
5.1.12 Argentina's electricity industry 248
5.2 RESULTS ANALYSIS BY SYSTEM & COUNTRIES' FEATURES 257
5.2.1 Energy resources system (rsssi) 258
5.2.2 Electricity generation system (gsssi) 260
5.2.3 Electricity t&d systems (tdsssi) 263
5.2.4 Electricity industry security of supply index (eissi) 266
5.3 EVALUATION OF OUR RESULTS WITH PREVIOUS STUDIES 268

Chapter 6. Policy Implications 271
6.1 ENERGY RESOURCES SYSTEM 274
6.1.1 R&D on renewable energy resources to modify energy mixes 275
6.1.2 Diversification of suppliers of energy commodities 277
6.1.3 Energy conservation activities 278
6.2 ELECTRICITY GENERATION SYSTEM 280
6.2.1 Strategic-efficient infrastructure to produce electricity 281
6.2.2 Bilateral electrical interconnections 283
6.2.3 Operation and maintenance programs 285
6.3 ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS 286
6.3.1 Strategic-efficient infrastructure to deliver electricity 287
6.3.2 Demand-side management activities 290
6.4 THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY 292
6.4.1 Well-organized planning 292
6.4.2 Price regulation 293
6.4.3 Guidelines for investments in energy projects 294
6.4.4 Industrial operations under the performance of standards 296

Chapter 7. Thesis Conclusions 298
7.1 ENERGY RESOURCES SYSTEM (RSSSI) 298
7.2 ELECTRICITY GENERATION SYSTEM (GSSSI) 300
7.3 ELECTRICITY T&D SYSTEMS (TDSSSI) 300
7.4 ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY (EISSI) 302
7.5 FROM THE MODEL 302

References 310
Appendixes 327
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dc.formatapplication/pdf-
dc.format.extent3544807 bytes-
dc.format.mediumapplication/pdf-
dc.language.isoko-
dc.publisher서울대학교 대학원-
dc.subjectEnergy security-
dc.subjectelectricity industry supply chain-
dc.subjectindicators for security of electricity supply-
dc.subjectcomposite indexes-
dc.subjectelectrical infrastructure efficiency-
dc.subject.ddc658-
dc.titleMeasurement of energy security in the electricity industry and its determinants: 12 Selected Latin American Countries-
dc.typeThesis-
dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthorSergio David Aldana Morataya-
dc.description.degreeDoctor-
dc.citation.pages336-
dc.contributor.affiliation공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공-
dc.date.awarded2014-02-
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