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Policy Analysis for Power Sector Sustainable Development Framework in the Philippines

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dc.contributor.advisorProfessor Yeonbae Kim-
dc.contributor.authorDanilo V. Vivar-
dc.date.accessioned2017-07-14T02:28:31Z-
dc.date.available2017-07-14T02:28:31Z-
dc.date.issued2013-02-
dc.identifier.other000000008615-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10371/122519-
dc.description학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2013. 2. 김연배.-
dc.description.abstractABSTRACT

Policy Analysis for Power Sector Sustainable Development Framework in the Philippines

Danilo V. Vivar
International Energy Policy Program
Technology Management, Economics and Policy
College of Engineering, Seoul National University

The global issues on environmental degradation shifted economic development efforts in a sustainable manner as part of core principle underpinning global and national policy and planning. Energy, undoubtedly one of the most important sectors of economy plays a vital role in economic growth while production and utilization of energy is also the biggest culprit for Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission that brought about environmental degradation. Particularly in energy related CO2 emissions, power generation sector is the biggest emitter of CO2 to the environment. In this regard, it is very important to analyze existing policy in power sector to ensure the sustainability of power development that would greatly influence all aspects of development.
The study focused on the policy analysis of long-term power development plan (PDP) of the Philippines. As a result of major structural reform, the power industry deregulation transferring majority of the power generation and transmission assets to the administration of private sector. Under deregulated condition of the power sector, the government is barred from investing in power generation, however, private participation is encouraged in order to put up required additional power capacities and related infrastructures. The government remained as a policy making body that monitors and evaluates the sector’s development. Important policy such as promotion on the utilization of renewable energy (RE) in power generation is encouraged, however, based on the recent PDP update lesser additional capacities from RE sources is expected in the near future. Thus, without full government support the program on RE promotion may not be achieved. On the other hand, the committed additional power capacities were generated from fossil fuels, which are the major sources of GHG emission. Thus, policy analysis for power sector sustainable development in a long-term is necessary to monitor and asses the sustainability of power sector encompassing the area of economic, social and environmental development.
The study used energy modelling tool to establish different long-term scenarios for power generation mix as indicated in the latest PDP and other long-term scenarios related to sustainable development efforts of the country such as high RE scenario. A comparative analysis likewise has been established among different scenarios to come up with policy implications of the current policy framework.
A major concern of the study is to provide bases in the formulation of policy for sustainable development of power sector in the Philippines towards a more systematic means of assessing existing policy framework
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dc.description.abstractto establish related energy indicators for assessing sustainability in the power development goal that that could support policy and decision makers and other energy stakeholders. To realize this concern, the study adopted Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development (EISD) framework to assess the sustainable path of the energy policy setup of the country.
The study result shows that fossil fuels, particularly coal and natural gas will still be the biggest source of power in the Philippines for the next 20 years, although its dominant contribution can be subsided but only with the full support of government that should need to implement RE goals and targets and other sustainable development strategies. This challenge is not an easy task for the government since it requires private participation but an initiative to incorporate sustainable development in socially responsive energy sector programs such as in rural electrification program and missionary electrification may lead to full development of RE technology, that in effect, long-term development can be expected for much larger scale of other RE technology application.
Keywords: Policy
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dc.description.abstractPower Sector-
dc.description.abstractSustainable Development-
dc.description.abstractEnergy Modelling-
dc.description.abstractEnergy Indicators
Student Number: 2011-22936
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dc.description.tableofcontentsTABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT………………………………………………………
CHAPTER 1 – BACKGROUND ……………………………….
1.1 Introduction ……………………………………………..
1.1.1 Power Generation ……………………………………….
1.2 Rationale of the Study …………………………….........
1.3 Study Framework ………………………………………
1.4 Research Questions …………………………………….
1.5 Objectives ..…………………………………………….
Chapter 2 – Review of Related Literatures and Studies ………..
2.1 The Implementation of Major Structural Reforms in Energy Sector …………………………………………………………….
2.1.1 EPIRA ………………….………………………………..
2.1.2 RE Law …………………………………………………..
2.2 Study on “Formulation of Sustainable Energy Development Strategies in the Context of Climate Change …………………..
2.3 Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development: Guidelines and Methodologies……………………………………………….
2.4 Synthesis and Relevance of the Reviewed Literature and Studies ………………………………………………………….
Chapter 3 – Research Methodology ……………………………
3.1 Energy Modeling ……………………………………….
3.1.1 Identification of Policy Issues ………………………….
3.1.2 Building the RES ……………………………………….
3.1.3 Considering Assumptions and Existing Conditions ……
3.1.4 Develop Scenarios …………………………………......
3.1.5 Optimize the Energy System ………………………….
3.1.6 Analyze the Results ……………………………………
3.2 Energy Indicators for SD ………………………………
3.2.1 Social Category ………………………………………..
3.2.2 Economic Category ……………………………………
3.2.2.1 Use and Production Patterns Indicator ………………..
3.2.2.2 End-Use Indicator …………………… ……………….
3.2.2.3 Diversification (Power Mix) Indicator . ………………
3.2.2.4 Security Imports ………………………………………
3.2.3 Environmental Category ……………………………...
3.3 Other Socioeconomic Parameters …………………….
Chapter 4 – Analysis and Interpretation of Data Results ….....
4.1 Power Generation Outlook ……………………………
4.1.1 Electricity Demand and Generation……………………
4.1.2 Generating Cost ……………………………………….
4.2 Energy Indicators ………………………………………
4.2.1 Social …………………………………………………..
4.2.2 Economic ………………………………………………
4.2.3 Environmental …………………………………………
Chapter 5 – Conclusions and Recommendations …………….
References ……………………………………………………
Appendices …………………………………………………...
Power Generation by Source ……………………………..
Installed Capacity by Plant Type ………………………...
Highlight of Energy Modelling using MESSAGE ……….
Data Results ………………………………………………
License Agreement of MESSAGE Software ……………
초록 (Abstract in Korean)………………………………….
LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1 Power Generation and Capacity by Source, 2000, 2005..

Table 1.2 Comparative Generation by Ownership/Utilities, 2009…

Table 1.3 Electricity Sales and Consumption, 2000, 2005 and ….

Table 2.1 RE Sector Objectives, Goals, and Polices and Strategies.

Table 3.1 Electricity Demand by Region, 2011-2030 ……………

Table 3.2 Power Demand by Sector, 2010 ……………………….

Table 3.3 Non-Power Demand by Fuel, 2010……………………

Table 3.4 Power Generation, Capacity and Capacity Factor …….

Table 3.5 Standard CO2 Emission Factors ………………………

Table 3.6 Techno-Economic Costs and Parameters ..……………

Table 3.7 Committed Projects in Power Generation by Region .
Table 3.8 Hydropower Indicative Capacity, MW ………………..

Table 3.9 Wind Energy Potential Capacity, MW ………………..


Table 3.10 Geothermal Indicative Capacity, MW ………………

Table 3.11 Solar Potential Capacity, MW ……………………….

Table 3.12 Report Generated by the MESSAGE Energy Model …

Table 3.13 List of Philippine Selected EISD …………………….
Table 3.14 Base Year Key Assumptions, 2010…………………..
Table 3.15 Key Assumptions Milestone Period Growth Rate, 2010-

Table 4.1 Total Generating Cost , in billion US$ …………………

Table 4.2 Percent Share of Household without Electricity, 2011 to

Table 4.3 Total Generating Cost by Household, in billion US$/HH

Table 4.4 Indicators for Use and Production Patterns …………….

Table 4.5 Energy Indicators for Diversification (fuel mix) – Base_C

Table 4.6 Energy Indicators for Diversification (fuel mix) – High RE

Table 4.7 Energy Indicators for Diversification (fuel mix) ……...

Table 4.8 Energy Indicators for Security of Supply …………….

Table 4.9 Energy Indicators for Atmosphe – Climate Change ….

Table A.1 Power Generation by Source – Base Case …………..

Table A.2 Power Generation by Source – High RE Scenario …..

Table A.3 Power Generation by Source – CO2Cons Scenario….

Table B.1 Installed Capacity by Plant Type – Base Case ………

Table B.2 Installed Capacity by Plant Type – High RE Scenario

Table B.3 Installed Capacity by Plant Type – CO2Cons Scenario






LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Conceptual Framework ………………………………

Figure 2.1 Energy Sector’s Organizational Structure Prior to EPIRA

Figure 2.2 Energy Sector’s Organizational Structure After EPIRA

Figure 2.3 RE Law Implementation Organizational Structure ….

Figure 3.1 RES of Energy Model ………………………………..

Figure 3.2 Selected Energy Indicators for Power Sector ……….

Figure 4.1 Electricity Demand by Sector …………………………

Figure 4.2 Electricity Demand by Sector …………………………

Figure 4.3 Gross Power Generation, 2011 to 2030 ……………….

Figure 4.4 Household Electrification level, 2011 to 2023 ……….

Figure 4.5 CO2 Emission Level by Case …………………………



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dc.formatapplication/pdf-
dc.format.extent4382252 bytes-
dc.format.mediumapplication/pdf-
dc.language.isoen-
dc.publisher서울대학교 대학원-
dc.subject.ddc658-
dc.titlePolicy Analysis for Power Sector Sustainable Development Framework in the Philippines-
dc.typeThesis-
dc.description.degreeMaster-
dc.citation.pages103-
dc.contributor.affiliation공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공-
dc.date.awarded2013-02-
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College of Engineering/Engineering Practice School (공과대학/대학원)Program in Technology, Management, Economics and Policy (협동과정-기술·경영·경제·정책전공)Theses (Master's Degree_협동과정-기술·경영·경제·정책전공)
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