Econometric Analysis on the Impact of Petrol Subsidy on the Economic Performance of Nigeria

Abstract

나이지리아는질이좋은경질유자원을소유하며하루에2.5MMbbls 생산량이가진세계의원유수출국가(오펙멤버) 이다.원유는국가경제성장의대기부자이기도한다.남,북지역으로구성된나이지리아는 1억 7천만의인구를가지고있으며아프리카땅의대국중하나라고일컬을만하다.남부해안지역은 나이지리아의원유상품을산출하는곳이며수출터미널과정밀상품수입터미널도잘구비되어있다.나이지리아가원유를산출하지만국내수요에비해원유를정련하는능력이아직많이낮다는것은사실이다. 따라서정유수요의갭을메우기위해정유를수입할수없게되었다.결국, 균일한유가를유지하기위해정부가남부산지에서북방까지휘발유의운송비용에대한보조금을주기로하였다.동시에마케팅회사로수입한휘발유의가격은규정된가격보다훨씬비싸므로이가격차에대해서도보조금을주기로하였다. 원유 품질의 차의 증가에 따라 경유와 중유 상품의 가격갭도 심해진다. 석유 수출국가의 정부들이 세금수입의 포기금액은 약 전국의 석유수출액의 삼분의 일을 차지한다고 발표했다(Mark Cosmo, 1989). 그결과, 유가의상승에따라국가들이지원하는보상금액을올릴수밖에없고이정책을없애는데에도점점힘들어진다. 석유는 나이지리아 경제의 주요 기지국이다.(가장 귀중하고, 다용도하면서도 고갈 속도 빠른 비재생자원): - 80년대부터 나이지리아의 외환수입의 97%차지 - 80년대에 국가 GDP 의 20%~25% 이상 차지하며 국가재정 수입의 70% 차지

석유 보조금은 소비자들이 실제가보다 싼 시중가를 지불하여 휘발유 구매를 원하는 데에 존재한다. 1986년 9월에 효과가 보인 후에, 정부가 점차 보조금 정책을 철수하기로 하였다. 이 상황에도 불구하고, 대다수의 나이지리아 사람들은 하류 석유 생산 부분의 보조금 폐지를 외쳤다. 본 논문은 석유 보조금의 폐쇄로 인한 나이지리아 경제에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석을 하고, 석유 수요의 변화가 국가 GDP을 미치는지도 분석하고자 한다. 본 논문은 다중 회귀계량경제법을 사용하여 수입은 유가와 유가 보조금, 그리고 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 소비량의함수로 삼아 경제 성장에 도움이 주는 석유 세금을 계산한다. 향후에는 시간에 따른 여러 가지 효과를 측정하기 위해 시계열분석방밥을 사용한 연구도 추가할 것이다. 다른 석유 산출국가의 성공적인 보조금 폐지 정책과의 비교를 통해 경제성과도 높일 수가 있다. 기타 석유 대체 자원에 대한 연구 정책은 경제 성장의 제고 효과가 있다. 뿐만 아니라 자원 방비에 대한 최소화 효과와 편의성으로 인한 탄소 배출도 효과가 있다. 결국 절약한 석유 자원은 미래에 증가된 수요에 만족시킬 수 있게 된다.

Nigeria is one of the worlds crude-oil-exporting countries (OPEC member) with light/sweet crude oil properties and a high volume of production (about 2.5 MMbbls/day). Oil is the major contributor to the national economic growth. Nigeria has a population of about 170.1 million and is one of the most extensive countries in terms of areal size in Africa. It also consists of two major regions: North and South. The southern coastal region is the domicile of Nigerias oil production and export terminals as well as its refined-product receiving terminals. Although Nigeria produces oil, its domestic refining capacity is by far lower than its domestic demand. As a consequence, refined petrol has to be imported to bridge the shortfall in the domestic supply. Consequently, to ensure the uniform pump price of petrol across the country, the federal government subsidized the cost of the transport of petrol from the southern source area to the northern high-demand areas. The government also pays the cost differential of imported petrol to marketing companies because the landing cost is higher than the regulated pump price. Along with the rapid increase in crude oil quality differentials also emerged a widening gap between the prices of light and heavy products. The forgone revenue estimates in oil-exporting countries approximate one-third of all the oil export revenues (Cosmo, 1989). Thus, with the continuous rise in energy prices, the subsidies provided by the government will become even more costly and increasingly difficult to remove. Oil, the main backbone of the Nigerian economy and one of the most valuable, versatile, and flexible non-reproductive, depletable natural resources: – constituted 97% of Nigerias foreign exchange earnings since the 80s

and – accounted for just above 20-25% of the total GDP in the 1980s, and 70% of the budgetary revenue. Oil subsidy exists when consumers would pay the market price per litre of petroleum product, less than the actual price. From September 1986, the government decided to gradually withdraw its subsidy on petroleum products. Notwithstanding this situation, majority of the Nigerians continue to clamor for further subsidy removal in the downstream oil sector of the Nigerian economy. This research aimed to analyse the impact of petrol subsidy removal on the economic performance of Nigeria, and to determine if the petrol consumption (demand) affects the national income (GDP). The analysis was conducted using the multiple regression econometric approach, with income being a function of the domestic pump price of petrol as well as petrol subsidy and consumption, which indicates that an increase in the consumption of petrol positively impacts economic growth, generating additional oil revenues that can be used to boost economic development. A further research was conducted using time series analysis to observe the effects of the variables over time. Economic performance can also be enhanced through policy comparisons with other oil-producing developing countries that successfully adapted the full subsidy withdrawal scheme. Policies based on the further development of abundant alternative energy resources will broaden their availability and will boost the economic development. It will also minimize energy wastage and carbon emissions due to the availability of cheap oil, and will save enough oil to meet the future increases in the oil demand.