Underlying Causes of Desertification in Mongolia

Abstract

In the case of Mongolia, desertification is a rapidly growing environmental concern. It has been estimated that 78% of the total territory of Mongolia is at risk of desertification, of which nearly 60% is classified as highly vulnerable. The goal of this study is to determine the factors that influence desertification and to estimate the impacts of each variable on desertification. The seven factors were selected as independent variables, and desertification ratio was chosen to be the dependent variable. For the purpose of finding relationships between independent variables, correlation analysis was conducted. Stepwise regression analysis result suggest that the most influential factors on desertification in Mongolia are animal husbandry and overgrazing. The change in forestland is identified as a precursor of desertification in semi-desert, forest-steppe and steppe zones. The climate factor, represented as temperature, slightly contributes to the desertification in semi-desert region. In the steppe zone, the population growth has a moderate influence on desertification. In the forest-steppe zone, desertification was driven by road networks construction. Based on the elasticity of desertification ratio with respect to each of the seven variables, pastureland was found to be elastic in all regions, which means that desertification is predominantly induced by pastureland expansion in Mongolia. Eventually, the study proves that human activities are more influential than natural impacts on desertification.