한국 2030세대의 투표참여와 지지정당에 관한 연구: 2003년과 2008년 한국종합사회조사(KGSS)의 자료 분석을 중심으로

Abstract

Since the 2002 Presidential Election, there has been a general view among Korean politics that the regional cleavage is collapsing due to the rise of the ideological and generational cleavages. Some found evidences that the ideological and generational cleavage have become strong enough to threaten the very existence of the regional cleavage. On the other hand, others reached a conclusion that although the impact of regional cleavage is changing

its influence is still remaining. We argue whether ideological and generational cleavages affected on election participation and supporting party of 2030s

whether regional cleavages changing affected on that. Therefore, this study examines the election participation and supporting party of 2030 generation in the 16th and 17th presidential elections by using the logistic regression analysis and technical analysis of the 2003 and 2008 Korean General Social Survey (KGSS). By doing so, this study surveys their vote participation and supporting party and analyze the factors what affected on their vote participation and supporting party too. In this study, we found that generational confrontation affected on 2030s election participation in the 16th and 17th presidential elections. Hereby, their voting rate was lower than over age 40s voting rate in both of presidential elections. Besides, in both of presidential elections the early 20s, 30s voting rate was lower than the late 20s, 30s. This shows that the more voters were younger, the more their voting rate were lower and the more voters were older, the more their voting rate were higher. However, we didnt find that regionalism and ideological cleavage affected on the result of their election participation. In case of supporting participation, we found that in the 17th presidential election ideological cleavage affected on 2030s supporting party but not in the 16th presidential election. While progressive 2030s supported Progressive Party, conservative 2030s voters supported Conservative Party. Moreover, in the 16th and the 17th presidential election, we calculate the probabilities of 2030s casting their vote to Progressive Party in accordance with their region. While 2030s locating in Honam area had the tendency to support Progressive party, 2030s voters locating in Yeongnam area supported Conservative Party. Especially, in both of Presidential Election, there was the correlation between 2030s voters supporting party and regional cleavage in Honam area. The correlation between their supporting party and regional cleavage, however, was not found in Yeongnam area. Based on the results of the logistic analysis, we are able to determine whether the generational factor played on a significant role in election participation of 2030s, whether generational, ideological, and regional cleavage affected on their supporting party.