Changing Dynamics in Myanmars Ethnic Peace Process and the Growing Role of China

Abstract

The Myanmar peace process between the government and the ethnic armed groups has undergone some major changes since October 2016. Whereas the armed groups were previously distinguished between those that had signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in 2015 and the non-signatories, the situation is much more complicated now. The formation of the Northern Alliance in late 2016 led by the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which had previously been outside the peace process, is the most important change. This development has in turn weakened the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), which represented the non-signatories, and has also led to the growing involvement of China in the peace process, introducing a new external dimension.