Modelling Route Choice Behavior Considering Individual Risk Preferences on Travel Time Reliability

Abstract

The route choice problem is an important factor in traffic operation and transportation planning. There have been many studies to analyze the route choice behavior using travel data. There was a limit in constructing a route choice model by generating an appropriate choice set due to the limitations of the data. In this study, we construct a choice set generation model and a stochastic route choice model using the observed data. This study estimates the parameters incorporating travelers heterogeneity according to the choice set from the choice set generation model and the route choice model. We define the individual confidence level according to perceived travel time distribution to reflect travelers heterogeneity on choice set generation model. In addition, the parameters were estimated using the mixed path-size correction logit model (MPSCL) considering the path overlapping and individual risk preference in the route choice model. We compare the experienced paths and the derived choice set to construct choice set generation model. In addition, it is possible to estimate better parameters incorporating travelers heterogeneity for choice set generation model and route choice model. We compare the choice set from the developed model with that of the conventional choice set generation model. This study shows the superior prediction result in route choice model reflecting the individual behaviors of the route choice in the urban area on the transportation demand forecasting and traffic operation.