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A Mathematical Model of Hepatitis A Virus Transmission and Its Application for Adult Vaccination Strategy in Korea : 수학적 모델링을 이용한 국내 A형간염 전파 특성 및 성인대상 예방접종 효과 연구

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dc.contributor.advisor조성일-
dc.contributor.author정성목-
dc.date.accessioned2018-05-29T04:10:24Z-
dc.date.available2018-05-29T04:10:24Z-
dc.date.issued2018-02-
dc.identifier.other000000149530-
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10371/141902-
dc.description학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 보건대학원 보건학과, 2018. 2. 조성일.-
dc.description.abstractDespite universal child vaccination programs and mandatory surveillance systems, the incidence rate of Hepatitis A virus (HAV) recently increased rapidly in Republic of Korea (Korea). Previous studies conducted in Korea developed mathematical models of HAV and projected the effectiveness of child vaccination-
dc.description.abstracthowever, there were no studies done using empirical data upon introduction of the National Immunization Programs child vaccination program. In this study, we proposed an age-structured dynamic model calibrated with recent empirical data, in order to understand the transmission dynamics of HAV infection and evaluate the impact of diverse adults vaccination strategies as an application of this model.
Although there were some unavoidable assumptions within the model due to lack of underlying information, the projected results fitted well with the empirical data with respect to epidemiology and anti-HAV seroprevalence. Moreover, when compared with the equivalent vaccine coverage, the results indicated that the HAV vaccination for those in their 30s were more effective than that of those in their 20s. Furthermore, when the first dose coverage is greater than 20% and the second dose coverage is at 95%, after a time of eight years, the percentage reduction of notification case is approximately 50%. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the waning rate and proportion of primary vaccine failure could be a fundamental factor in predicting the future epidemic curve of an HAV infection.
The model indicated adult vaccination for 30s can be practical and effective intervention to reduce the burden of HAV in Korea.
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dc.description.tableofcontentsINTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Hepatitis A 1
1.2 Epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis A in Republic of Korea 3
1.3 Previous mathematical modeling researches for hepatitis A vaccination 8
METHODS 10
2.1 Modeling steps and data used 10
2.2 Demography 12
2.3 Natural history of hepatitis A 13
2.4 Transmission 16
2.5 Impact of hepatitis A vaccination 18
2.6 Analysis 25
RESULTS 26
3.1 Model calibration with empirical data 26
3.2 Model projections with HAV adult vaccination 30
3.3 Sensitivity analysis 36
DISCUSSION 40
CONCLUSION 46
REFERENCE 48
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dc.formatapplication/pdf-
dc.format.extent1239549 bytes-
dc.format.mediumapplication/pdf-
dc.language.isoen-
dc.publisher서울대학교 대학원-
dc.subjectHepatitis A-
dc.subjectMathematical model-
dc.subjectTransmission dynamics-
dc.subjectAdult vaccination-
dc.subject.ddc614-
dc.titleA Mathematical Model of Hepatitis A Virus Transmission and Its Application for Adult Vaccination Strategy in Korea-
dc.title.alternative수학적 모델링을 이용한 국내 A형간염 전파 특성 및 성인대상 예방접종 효과 연구-
dc.typeThesis-
dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthorSung-Mok Jung-
dc.description.degreeMaster-
dc.contributor.affiliation보건대학원 보건학과-
dc.date.awarded2018-02-
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