Risk-Informed Hazard Loss of Bridges in a Life-Cycle Context

Abstract

Coastal bridges are vulnerable to typhoon hazards due to increasing exposure to climate change over the life-cycle. The consequent hazard-induced loss is affected by uncertainties arising from the typhoon hazard model in terms of increasing occurrence of typhoon frequency and intensity. In the literature, researchers highlighted hazard model of the stochastic homogeneous Poisson process in an infinite time interval and neglected quantification of uncertainty caused by climate change. This paper estimates the expectation and variance of lifetime typhoon-induced loss of bridges considering both with and without climate change effects using renewal theory and moment generating function methods. This paper aims to aid the design of coastal bridges by considering the changing climate effects on hazard management process.