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CRYPTOCURRENCIES IMPLICATIONS AND RISKS ANALYSIS OF BITCOIN

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dc.contributor.advisorRhee, Yeongseop-
dc.contributor.authorEngy Mahmoud Helmy Awad-
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-18T15:59:46Z-
dc.date.available2019-10-18T15:59:46Z-
dc.date.issued2019-08-
dc.identifier.other000000156331-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10371/161125-
dc.identifier.urihttp://dcollection.snu.ac.kr/common/orgView/000000156331ko_KR
dc.description학위논문(석사)--서울대학교 대학원 :국제대학원 국제학과(국제지역학전공),2019. 8. Rhee, Yeongseop.-
dc.description.abstract국문초록
암호화폐의 문제와 위험/위협 요소 분석
-비트코인 대상으로-
인지 마흐무드 힐르미 아와드
서울대학교 국제대학원 국제학연구소
본 연구는 암호화폐의 요소와 문제가 국제법의 틀 내에서 규제되지 않은 경우 물가와 지불제도의 안정성과 더불어 금융안정에 얼마나 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있는지를 밝히는 데에 목적이 있다.
한편, 본 연구는 이 지불 제도가 가져올 기회와 혜택, 그리고 그것이 투자들에게 호소력이 있다는 점을 받아들인다.
무엇보다도, 본 연구는 범죄자, 사기꾼, 돈세탁하는 사람들에 의해 부정한 행위를 하는 데 이용되어 공권력에 큰 도전이 될 수 있다는 점에서 이러한 제도들을 둘러싼 법적 불확실성을 강조한다.
게다가 본 연구는 15개 국가의 연간 데이터를 이용해 2013-2017 기간 내에 가장 널리 거래되는 암호화폐 '비트코인'의 수요에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석한다. 본 연구는 2SLS 방법을 이용해 다음과 같은 결론을 내렸다. 첫째, 거래 규모와 시장 변동성과 같은 비트코인 시장과 관련된 시장 요소들이 경제적 정책 불확실성, 무역장벽, 선진국과 개발도상국에게 송금과 상당한 연관성이 있는 것으로 나왔다. 두번째, 이민자의 규모는 전체적으로 무의미한데도 선진국에서 낮은 'P-value'로 나온다. 그래서 경제적 불확실성과 무역 마찰에 대한 인식은 국가 분류에게 영향을 받지 않다는 것을 추론할 수 있으며 전체적으로 의미가 있다는 것으로 간주된다. 한편, 소득 수준, 납세 변수는 비트코인 수요와 관련하는 국가의 분류에 의해 크게 영향을 받는다. 마지막으로 인터넷 사용자의 수, 환율과 같은 변수는 통계적으로 아무 의미가 없는 것으로 나왔다.
주요어: 암호화폐, 비트코인, 보호주의, 무역장벽, 송금, 경제적 불확실성, 비트코인 분석, 비트코인 수요 결정 요인.
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dc.description.abstractABSTRACT
CRYPTOCURRENCIES IMPLICATIONS AND RISKS
ANALYSIS OF BITCOIN

Engy Mahmoud Helmy Awad
International Area Studies
Graduate School of International Studies
Seoul National University

This dissertation demonstrates how extensive the risks and implications of crypto-currencies can influence the financial stability along with prices and payment systems stabilities, if not regulated under deterrent international legal framework. In contrast, this paper acknowledges the opportunities and benefits these payment schemes might bring about and how appealing they might be perceived by investors. Moreover it highlights the legal uncertainties surrounding these schemes with respect to challenges they rise to public authorities, as they can be used by criminals, fraudsters and money launderers to perform illegal activities.
Furthermore, this paper examines factors that influence the demand for the most commonly traded cryptocurrency “Bitcoin” over the period 2013-2017 using annual data for fifteen designated countries. The study employs 2SLS technique and documents several findings. First, Bitcoin market-related factors such as econometric Beta, trading volume, and volatility appear to be significantly correlated to economic policies uncertainties, trade Barriers and remittance transfers for both developed and developing countries. Second, international migrants stock appears with lower P-value in developed countries despite its overall insignificance. This indicates that; recognition of the economic uncertainties and trade frictions are not influenced by countries classification division and will hold their significance throughout. On the other hand, income level and tax payments variables are highly influenced by the country’s classification when it comes to Bitcoin demand. Finally variables like number of internet users and exchange rates hold strong evidence of statistical insignificance with high likelihood of accepting the null hypothesis.
Keywords: Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Protectionism, trade barriers, remittance transfers, economic uncertainty, Bitcoin Analysis, Bitcoin demand determinants.
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dc.description.tableofcontentsTable of Contents
1.1 Background of the study 1
1.2 Chapters outlines: 1
1.3 Crypto-currencies and Bitcoin: 3
1.4 Historical Timeline: 5
1.5 Objective of the study 7
1.6 Research question 8
1.7 Significance of the study 8
1.8 Methodology 8
1.9 Literature review: 9
CHAPTER TWO: RISKS AND IMPLICATIOSNS 14
2.1 Traditional theories of money 14
2.2 Virtual currencies creation and adoption: 16
2.3 Differences between fiat currency and virtual currency 18
2.4 Advantages of cryptocurrency: 19
2.5 Disadvantages of cryptocurrency: 22
2.6 Security implications of cryptocurrency: 23
2.7 Risks and implications of crypto-currencies: 24
2.7.1 Risks to price stability: 25
2.7.2 Risks to Financial stability: 26
2.7.3 Risks to Payment system stability 27
2.7.4 Lack of Prudential supervision: 28
2.8 Mitigating Crypto-currencies risks: 29
CHAPTER THREE: DETERMINANTS OF BITCOIN DEMAND 32
3.1 Introduction: 32
3.2 Methodology used: 33
3.3 Research design: 34
3.4 Data collection: 35
3.5 Data and variables: 35
3.6 Main drivers for the Bitcoin price index: 35
3.7 Variables affecting the demand for Crypto currencies: 37
3.7.1 Globalization and ICT advancements: 38
3.7.2 Personal remittances: 39
3.7.3 Rising protectionism against hyperglobalization and Bitcoin: 39
3.7.4 Economic policy uncertainty: 43
3.7.5 Quality of human capital: 44
3.7.6 Taxation, market regulations and money transfer charges: 45
3.7.7 Stock market: 46
CHAPTER FOUR: FINDINGS, DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION 47
4.1 Introduction: 47
4.2 Descriptive statistics: 47
4.3 Data Variables: 48
4.3.1 Dependent variable: 48
4.3.2 Independent variables: 49
4.3.3 Control variables: 50
4.4 correlation matrix results: 51
4.5 Regression analysis: 52
4.5.1 Anva section: 52
4.5.2 Regression formula: 53
4.5.3 Regression results interpretation: 53
4.5.4 Sum of residuals of the regression analysis: 55
4.5.5 Partial and semi-partial correlations: 56
4.6 Two-Stage least squares (2SLS) regression analysis: 57
4.7 Omitted-variables bias: 59
4.8 Developed vs Developing countries: 61
4.9 Conclusion: 62
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 63
5.1 Introduction: 63
5.2 Empirical findings summary and answering the research questions: 63
5.3 Policy implications: 65
5.4 Limitations of the study and recommendations for future studies: 65
5.5 Conclusion: 66
References 68
국문초록 74
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dc.language.isoeng-
dc.publisher서울대학교 대학원-
dc.subjectCryptocurrency-
dc.subjectBitcoin-
dc.subjectProtectionism-
dc.subjecttrade barriers-
dc.subjectremittance transfers-
dc.subjecteconomic uncertainty-
dc.subjectBitcoin Analysis-
dc.subjectBitcoin demand determinants-
dc.subject.ddc307-
dc.titleCRYPTOCURRENCIES IMPLICATIONS AND RISKS ANALYSIS OF BITCOIN-
dc.typeThesis-
dc.typeDissertation-
dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthor아와드엔기-
dc.contributor.department국제대학원 국제학과(국제지역학전공)-
dc.description.degreeMaster-
dc.date.awarded2019-08-
dc.identifier.uciI804:11032-000000156331-
dc.identifier.holdings000000000040▲000000000041▲000000156331▲-
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Graduate School of International Studies (국제대학원)Dept. of International Studies (국제학과)Theses (Master's Degree_국제학과)
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