- Issue Date
- 서울대학교 대학원
- 학위논문(박사)--서울대학교 대학원 :사회과학대학 경제학부,2019. 8. 조성진.
통해담배시장의수요함수를분석하였다. BLP(1995)모형을 이용하여
This paper aims to verify the eﬀect of tax reform in the Korea cigarette
industry. First, I estimate a random coeﬃcient model of demand for
cigarettes. Unlike previous studies, this study analyzed the demand
function of the cigarette market using a structural estimation. The
estimation procedures are followed by the BLP(1995) and Nevo(2001)
model. The own price elasticity of cigarette is estimated -0.15 before
the tax reform. And it decreased to - 0.24 after the tax reform in 2015.
Consumers who buy cigarettes are more sensitive to prices after the tax
reform. Cross elasticity was estimated to be close to zero both before
and after the tax reform. The marginal cost of individual cigarettes
was derived using demand function estimates. The marginal cost of
individual cigarettes was estimated to be between 500 and 600. Using
the results of demand and marginal cost, I analyzed the social welfare
of tax reform. And I quantify the value of consumer losses and cal-
culate the transition value to government, cigarettes producers, and
retailers. Finally, I analyze the policy simulation of new cigarette reg-
ulation(ban on sales of ﬂavored cigarette) speciﬁed in the government.
According to the results, consumers who buy ﬂavored cigarettes would
move to high tar cigarettes.