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A Study on the Obama Administrations Coercive Diplomacy in Nuclear Negotiations : A Comparative Analysis of the Iranian and North Korean Cases
핵 협상을 위한 오바마 행정부의 강압외교: 이란 및 북한 사례를 중심으로

DC Field Value Language
dc.contributor.advisor신성호-
dc.contributor.author박서현-
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-13T03:08:20Z-
dc.date.available2020-10-13T03:08:20Z-
dc.date.issued2020-
dc.identifier.other000000163211-
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10371/169591-
dc.identifier.urihttp://dcollection.snu.ac.kr/common/orgView/000000163211ko_KR
dc.description학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 국제대학원 국제학과(국제협력전공), 2020. 8. 신성호.-
dc.description.abstractNorth Koreas nuclear program and the complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula have been one of the biggest challenges in the history of denuclearisation negotiations. The Trump administration appeared to have been improving the relationship with North Korea and making a dramatic progress on the denuclearisation process through multiple high-level visits and meaningful summits however, his accomplishment has become on the verge of collapse again, just as other previous administrations had undergone. One critical component of the nuclear negotiation with North Korea is the role of the US and the US diplomacy, alongside with various multilateral initiatives and cooperation. Using the US diplomatic framework of coercive diplomacy, this paper seeks to understand the major causes of failure of the US diplomacy during the Obama administration and the negotiation with North Korea in particular. The findings suggest that the strength of motivation and the sense of urgency of negotiating countries one of key factors that facilitates the negotiation process. The findings also suggest that international community, particularly the regional actors plays an increasingly important role during the negotiation process and thus needs to be actively facilitated in negotiations over North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Analysing the previous administrations negotiation process, this study is expected to provide an insightful lesson for the Trump administration.-
dc.description.abstract오바마 행정부의 핵심 외교적 성과 중 하나는 바로 이란과의 포괄적공동행동계획(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: JCPOA) 합의이다. 취임 이후 스마트파워 외교를 내세워 세계와 소통하겠다고 다짐했던 오바마 대통령의 의지는 이란과 국제사회의 핵문제에 대한 합의를 가능하게 했다. 하지만 같은 적대국 관여외교를 펼친 북한과는 핵 협상을 진전시키지 못했을 뿐만 아니라 임기가 지날수록 북한에의 관심이 시들 해지는 모습을 발견할 수 있었다. 왜 북한은 예외적인 모습으로 남겨졌을까? 이 논문은 왜 오바마 대통령의 외교정책이 미국의 적대국과의 비핵화 협상 과정에서 각기 다른 결과를 낳았는지에 대한 이유를 주요 연구 문제로 다루며, 이를 설명하기 위해 알렉산더 조지 (Alexander L. George)의 강압외교 (coercive diplomacy) 이론을 활용한다. 이 논문은 우선 이란과 북한과의 핵 협상 과정을 각각 분석하여 오바마 대통령의 두 임기 동안 미국이 어떤 강압전략을 채택하였으며, 그 적대국들이 (각각 이란과 북한) 어떤 역강압 전략을 채택하여 맞대응 하였는지를 분석한다. 이 분석을 기반으로 오바마 행정부의 대이란 전략과 대북 전략에서 드러나는 공통점과 차이점을 비교∙분석함으로써 협상의 성공 및 실패의 요인을 설명한다. 그 결과, 알렉산더 조지가 제시한 강압외교가 성공하기 위한 8가지 조건 중에서 크게 동기의 비대칭과 강압국의 요구에 순응해야 하는 긴박감 그리고 국내 및 국제적 지지를 협상의 성패를 가르는 주 요인을 꼽았으며, 이러한 결과는 현재 교착상태에 빠진 북핵 협상을 재가동 하기 위해서는 북한 국내상황에 대한 충분한 이해와 더불어 국제사회의 협력 및 지지가 중요하다는 점을 시사한다.-
dc.description.tableofcontentsChapter I. Introduction 1
1. Background of the Research 1
2. Research Purpose and Objectives 3
3. Thesis Structure 4
Chapter II. Literature Review 5
1. Theoretical Framework: Coercive Diplomacy Theory 5
1) Concept of Strategic Coercion and Theory of Coercive Diplomacy 5
2) Three Types of Coercive Diplomacy 7
3) Strategies of Coercive Diplomacy 8
4) Conditions that Favour Successful Coercive Diplomacy 10
2. Obama Doctrine and the US Security Strategy 13
1) Obama Administration's US Foreign Policy in Various Dimensions 13
2) Obama's Vision on the Nuclear-Free World 17
Chapter III. An Analysis of Nuclear Diplomacy with Iran 20
1. The Nuclear Diplomacy with Iran: the US Strategic Coercion 20
1) From 'Try-and-See' to 'Gradual Turning of the Screw' Coercive Diplomacy 21
2) Iran's Counter Coercive Diplomacy and Increasing Multilateral Coercion 26
3) New Sanctions and Prolonged Iranian Counter Coercive Diplomacy 29
4) The Impact of Sanctions and Obama's Re-election 32
5) Election of President Rouhani and the Joint Plan of Action 34
2. Assessing the Use of Coercive Diplomacy under the Obama Administration: The Case of Iran 36
1) The First Term of Obama's Presidency and the Enmity Trap 36
2) The Second Term of Obama's Presidency and Clash with Israel 37
Chapter IV. An Analysis of Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea 39
1. Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea: the US Strategic Coercion 39
1) Strategy of Disengagement and 'Try-and-See' Coercive Diplomacy 39
2) North Korea's Use of Terror and Nuclear Coercion 42
3) Vicious Cycle of 'Coercive Counter Coercive Diplomacy' and Continuous Escalation of Tension 46
4) Third Nuclear Test and the Increase of North Korean Nuclear Deterrence 50
5) Ongoing Nuclear Tests and An Endless Loop of Coercive Diplomacy- Counter Coercive Diplomacy 53
2. Assessing the Use of Coercive Diplomacy under the Obama Administration: The Case of North Korea 56
1) Deterioration of Information on North Korea 57
2) Strengthening North Korea's Nuclear Capability 58
Chapter V. Comparative Analysis of Iran and North Korea in the Nuclear Negotiation Process 59
1. Asymmetry of Demands and Motivations and Its Impact on Negotiations 59
1) Negotiation with Iran: High Motivation and High Sense of Urgency 59
2) Negotiation with North Korea: Low Motivation and Low Sense of Urgency 62
2. The Role of Multilateral Talks and Active Support from Regional Actors 65
1) China's New Role during the JCPOA Negotiations 65
2) Active Cooperation from E3 on Sanctions Policy 68
3) Ambivalent Attitude of China on North Korean Nuclear Issue 73
4) Contradictory Attitude of Russia and its Insignificant Role 77
Chapter VI. Conclusion 80
1. Main Objectives and the Findings of the Study 80
2. Limitations 86
Bibliography 88
초록 97
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dc.language.isoeng-
dc.publisher서울대학교 대학원-
dc.subjectNuclear Negotiation-
dc.subjectDenuclearisation-
dc.subjectCoercive Diplomacy-
dc.subjectIran-
dc.subjectNorth Korea-
dc.subjectObama-
dc.subject핵 협상-
dc.subject비핵화-
dc.subject강압외교-
dc.subject이란-
dc.subject북한-
dc.subject오바마 행정부-
dc.subject.ddc327.17-
dc.titleA Study on the Obama Administrations Coercive Diplomacy in Nuclear Negotiations-
dc.title.alternative핵 협상을 위한 오바마 행정부의 강압외교: 이란 및 북한 사례를 중심으로-
dc.typeThesis-
dc.typeDissertation-
dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthorPak, Seohyun-
dc.contributor.department국제대학원 국제학과(국제협력전공)-
dc.description.degreeMaster-
dc.date.awarded2020-08-
dc.title.subtitleA Comparative Analysis of the Iranian and North Korean Cases-
dc.identifier.uciI804:11032-000000163211-
dc.identifier.holdings000000000043▲000000000048▲000000163211▲-
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Graduate School of International Studies (국제대학원)Dept. of International Studies (국제학과)Theses (Master's Degree_국제학과)
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