More accurate prediction of metastatic pancreatic cancer patients' survival with prognostic model using both host immunity and tumor metabolic activity

Abstract

Introduction Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and standard uptake value (SUV) by F-18-FDG PET represent host immunity and tumor metabolic activity, respectively. We investigated NLR and maximum SUV (SUVmax) as prognostic markers in metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC) patients who receive palliative chemotherapy. Methods We reviewed 396 MPC patients receiving palliative chemotherapy. NLR was obtained before and after the first cycle of chemotherapy. In 118 patients with PET prior to chemotherapy, SUVmax was collected. Cut-off values were determined by ROC curve. Results In multivariate analysis of all patients, NLR and change in NLR after the first cycle of chemotherapy (Delta NLR) were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). We scored the risk considering NLR and Delta NLR and identified 4 risk groups with different prognosis (risk score 0 vs 1 vs 2 vs 3: OS 9.7 vs 7.9 vs 5.7 vs 2.6 months, HR 1 vs 1.329 vs 2.137 vs 7.915, respectively; P<0.001). In PET cohort, NLR and SUVmax were independently prognostic for OS. Prognostication model using both NLR and SUVmax could define 4 risk groups with different OS (risk score 0 vs 1 vs 2 vs 3: OS 11.8 vs 9.8 vs 7.2 vs 4.6 months, HR 1 vs 1.536 vs 2.958 vs 5.336, respectively; P<0.001). Conclusions NLR and SUVmax as simple parameters of host immunity and metabolic activity of tumor cell, respectively, are independent prognostic factors for OS in MPC patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy.