GloSea6 모형에서의 성층권 돌연승온 하층 영향 분석: 2018년 성층권 돌연승온 사례

Abstract

This study investigates the downward influences of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in February 2018 using a subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast model, Global Seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6). To quantify the influences of SSW on the tropospheric prediction skills, free-evolving (FREE) forecasts are compared to stratospheric nudging (NUDGED) forecasts where zonal-mean flows in the stratosphere are relaxed to the observation. When the models are initialized on 8 February 2018, both FREE and NUDGED forecasts successfully predicted the SSW and its downward influences. However, FREE forecasts initialized on 25 January 2018 failed to predict the SSW and downward propagation of negative Northern Annular Mode (NAM). NUDGED forecasts with SSW nudging qualitatively well predicted the downward propagation of negative NAM. In quantity, NUDGED forecasts exhibit a higher mean squared skill score of 500 hPa geopotential height than FREE forecasts in late February and early March. The surface air temperature and precipitation are also better predicted. Cold and dry anomalies over the Eurasia are particularly well predicted in NUDGED compared to FREE forecasts. These results suggest that a successful prediction of SSW could improve the surface prediction skills on subseasonal-to-seasonal time scale.