기상청 전지구예측시스템 자료에서의 2016~2017년 북반구 블로킹 예측성 분석

Abstract

Predictability of Northern Hemisphere blocking in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) is evaluated for the period of July 2016 to May 2017. Using the operational model output, blocking is defined by a meridional gradient reversal of 500-hPa geopotential height as Tibaldi-Molteni Index. Its predictability is quantified by computing the critical success index and bias score against ERA-Interim data. It turns out that Northwest Pacific blockings, among others, are reasonably well predicted with a forecast lead time of 2 similar to 3 days. The highest prediction skill is found in spring with 3.5 lead days, whereas the lowest prediction skill is observed in autumn with 2.25 lead days. Although further analyses are needed with longer dataset, this result suggests that Northern Hemisphere blocking is not well predicted in the operational weather prediction model beyond a short-term weather prediction limit. In the spring, summer, and autumn periods, there was a tendency to overestimate the Western North Pacific blocking.