분위수 회귀분석을 이용한 동아시아 지역 극한기온의 장기 추세 분석

Abstract

This study explores the long‐term trends of extreme temperatures of 270 observation stations in East Asia (China, Japan, and Korea) for 1961‐2013. The 5th percentile of daily minimum temperatures (TN05%) and 95th percentile of daily maximum temperatures (TX95%), derived from the quantile regression, are particularly examined in term of their linear and nonlinear trends. The warming trends of TN05% are typically stronger than those of TX95% with more significant trends in winter than in summer for most stations. In both seasons, warming trends of TN05% tend to amplify with latitudes. The nonlinear trends, quantified by the 2nd‐order polynomial fitting, exhibit different structures with seasons. While summer TN05% and TX95% were accelerated in time, winter TN05% underwent weakening of warming since the 2000s. These results suggest that extreme temperature trends in East Asia are not homogeneous in time and space.