The response of extratropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere to stratospheric ozone depletion in the 20th century

Abstract

This study explores the impact of Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion on extratropical cyclones. Output from the Community Atmosphere Model is combined with a Lagrangian cyclone-tracking algorithm to identify the response of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones to ozone and greenhouse gas forcings over the period 1960-2000. Stratospheric ozone depletion induces a significant poleward shift in cyclone frequency over the Southern Ocean, but has minimal influence on cyclone intensity and lifetime. The response of the cyclones to late 20th century greenhouse gas increases has similar characteristics, but falls within the range of natural variability in the model.