Improved seasonal forecast using ozone hole variability?

Abstract

Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate change has been partly attributed to Antarctic ozone depletion in the literatures. Here we show that the ozone hole has affected not only the long-term climate change but also the interannual variability of SH surface climate. A significant negative correlation is observed between September ozone concentration and the October southern annular mode index, resulting in systematic variations in precipitation and surface air temperature throughout the SH. This time-lagged relationship is comparable to and independent of that associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode, suggesting that SH seasonal forecasts could be improved by considering Antarctic stratospheric variability.