A Deep Learning Model Using Chest Radiographs for Prediction of 30-Day Mortality in Patients With Community-Acquired Pneumonia: Development and External Validation

Abstract

BACKGROUND. Chest radiography is an essential tool for diagnosing community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), but it has an uncertain prognostic role in the care of patients with CAP. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to develop a deep learning (DL) model to predict 30-day mortality from diagnosis among patients with CAP by use of chest radiographs to validate the performance model in patients from different time periods and institutions. METHODS. In this retrospective study, a DL model was developed from data on 7105 patients from one institution from March 2013 to December 2019 (3:1:1 allocation to training, validation, and internal test sets) to predict the risk of all-cause mortality within 30 days after CAP diagnosis by use of patients initial chest radiographs. The DL model was evaluated in a cohort of patients diagnosed with CAP during emergency department visits at the same institution from January 2020 to March 2020 (temporal test cohort [n = 947]) and in two additional cohorts from different institutions (external test cohort A [n = 467], January 2020 to December 2020; external test cohort B [n = 381], March 2019 to Oc-tober 2021). AUCs were compared between the DL model and an established risk prediction tool based on the presence of confusion, blood urea nitrogen level, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age 65 years or older (CURB-65 score). The combination of CURB-65 score and DL model was evaluated with a logistic regression model. RESULTS. The AUC for predicting 30-day mortality was significantly larger (p < .001) for the DL model than for CURB-65 score in the temporal test set (0.77 vs 0.67). The larger AUC for the DL model than for CURB-65 score was not significant (p > .05) in external test cohort A (0.80 vs 0.73) or external test cohort B (0.80 vs 0.72). In the three cohorts, the DL model, in comparison with CURB-65 score, had higher (p < .001) specificity (range, 61– 69% vs 44–58%) at the sensitivity of CURB-65 score. The combination of DL model and CURB-65 score, in comparison with CURB-65 score, yielded a significant increase in AUC in the temporal test cohort (0.77, p < .001) and external test cohort B (0.80, p = .04) and a nonsignificant increase in AUC in external test cohort A (0.80, p = .16). CONCLUSION. A DL-based model consisting of initial chest radiographs was predictive of 30-day mortality among patients with CAP with improved performance over CURB-65 score. CLINICAL IMPACT. The DL-based model may guide clinical decision-making in the care of patients with CAP.