불확실성하의 원가-조업도-이익분석과 정보의 가치에 대한 고찰

Abstract

The cost-volume-profit analysis under certainty does not explicitly recognize uncertainty

in any of the related variables. However, without a formal model of uncertainty in sales, price,

or cost parameters, information such as the expected opportunity loss from following a given

course of action cannot be obtained. In this paper, we illustrate how to evaluate the value of

information. Specifically, the following issues are to be explored:

• how to derive expected opportunity loss function?

• how to separate value of perfect information?

• how to measure expected opportunity loss and value of perfect information

under the assumption that sales are normally distributed?

• how to measure expected value of sample information?

• how to determine the optimal production level when the production decision must be

made before actual sales are known?