Markov 전이모형을 이용한 IMT-2000 수요예측

Abstract

This paper explores demand forecasting model and user behavior of continuous growing

IMT-2000 in telecommunication market, mostly focusing on the usage of multi-media

contents, integration of wire & wireless telephony and global access system.

Based on consumer need and service cost of IMT-2000, this research proceeds Markovian

transition model expressing expected value of subscription probability. The expected value of

subscription probability uses choice model, expansion of IMT-2000 service is resulted from

substitution of IMT-2000 service of potential subscriber, which is cellular/PCS users. To gain

the expected value of subscription probability, we estimate β-value of logistic regression

model through significant factor in question research.

Empirical data analysis focuses on the using status of existing mobile service users, their

awareness of forthcoming IMT-2000 services and other related variables of IMT-2000

services and proceeds to forecast consumer need and expected usage of the services based on

this data. This approach seems to be reasonable because most of IMT-2000 service users are

expected to migrate from existing cellular phone & PCS services.

Finally, researchers concludes that the S pattern of user explosion, which was commonly

observed at the developing stage of existing telecommunication markets, will fairly apply to this newly coming IMT-2000 services, assuming the migration of existing telecom service

users.