S-Space College of Business Administration/Business School (경영대학/대학원) Institute of Management Research (경영연구소) 경영논집 경영논집 vol.36 (2002)
Markov 전이모형을 이용한 IMT-2000 수요예측 : Demand Forecasting of IMT-2000 Services Using Markovian Transition Model
- Issue Date
- 서울대학교 경영연구소
- 경영논집, Vol.36 No.2/3, pp. 419-443
- This paper explores demand forecasting model and user behavior of continuous growing
IMT-2000 in telecommunication market, mostly focusing on the usage of multi-media
contents, integration of wire & wireless telephony and global access system.
Based on consumer need and service cost of IMT-2000, this research proceeds Markovian
transition model expressing expected value of subscription probability. The expected value of
subscription probability uses choice model, expansion of IMT-2000 service is resulted from
substitution of IMT-2000 service of potential subscriber, which is cellular/PCS users. To gain
the expected value of subscription probability, we estimate β-value of logistic regression
model through significant factor in question research.
Empirical data analysis focuses on the using status of existing mobile service users, their
awareness of forthcoming IMT-2000 services and other related variables of IMT-2000
services and proceeds to forecast consumer need and expected usage of the services based on
this data. This approach seems to be reasonable because most of IMT-2000 service users are
expected to migrate from existing cellular phone & PCS services.
Finally, researchers concludes that the S pattern of user explosion, which was commonly
observed at the developing stage of existing telecommunication markets, will fairly apply to this newly coming IMT-2000 services, assuming the migration of existing telecom service