S-Space College of Humanities (인문대학) Institute of Latin American Studies (라틴아메리카연구소) Revista Iberoamericana (이베로아메리카연구) Revista Iberoamericana (이베로아메리카연구) vol.22 no.01/02 (2011)
브라질 룰라 정부의 유산과 후세피 정부의 전망
- Issue Date
- 서울대학교 라틴아메리카연구소(SNUILAS)
- Revista Iberoamericana, Vol.22 No.1, pp. 149-182
- Lula; BRICs; peripheral liberalism; coalitional presidentialism; new middle; Dutch disease; 룰라; 브릭스; 주변부 자유주의 모델; 연정 대통령제; 신중간계급; 네덜란드병
- The article tries to evaluate the legacies of Lula government which
were much lauded by national and international media coverage. Brazil under
Lula shows well both the darker and the brighter sides of the reform
experiences since 1990s in Brazil. First, the growth in export market, due to the
Chinese demand, tends to reduce the risks of external crises, and allow for
more vigorous expansion of the domestic market. But Brazilian economic
performance has not been quite good in the last decade comparing with its
historical records. The pace of growth was more moderate with annual growth
rate of 4.1%, well below the ones of the more dynamic developing economies.
Second, the pillars of the macroeconomic policy have been the use the of
exchange rate as an anti-inflation instrument, and the maintenance of primary
surplus, which was continued since the Cardoso administration. Higher rate of
interest combined with a relatively unregulated capital account, has led to
significant capital inflows and a long term tendency to exchange rate
appreciation, which would also leads to the Dutch disease.
Third, the moderate improvement in income distribution and the appearance of
the so-called new middle class was quoted by the Lula government as one of
the main accomplishments. It is clear that the wages of the lower income strata,
in particular, the minimum wage increased at a faster pace. But the average
real remuneration of workers has not improved significantly. The notion of a new
middle-class has been tied more to the enlargement of social programs, and
the expansion of consumer credit.
The Dilma administration tries to expand the more progressive programs of
Lulas second term(PAC-2), and allow the economy to grow at a faster pace,
promoting a more significant redistribution of income. But the structural
constraints ingrained by the Cardoso and Lula administrations tend to lead her government to a more moderate and cautious agenda.