S-Space Researcher Institutes (연구소) American Studies Institute (미국학연구소) 미국학 미국학 Volume 36 Number 1/2 (2013)
2012년 미국 대선과 공화당의 과제
- Issue Date
- 서울대학교 미국학연구소
- 미국학, Vol.36 No.1, pp. 1-38
- 2012 U. S. Presidential Election; incumbent advantage; demographic shift; culture war; party rebranding
- This study analyzes the 2012 U. S. Presidential election results focusing on some scholarly accounts that explain why the Republican candidate lost the November election. Although the last U. S. Presidential election was believed for some Republicans to be “impossible-to-lose” election due to the enduring economic depression, the GOP failed to win the election. Drawing upon some scholarly and journalistic analyses of the 2012 U. S. Presidential outcomes, I suggest some reasons explaining why the Incumbent President Obama could win the election despite the bad economic condition. I contend that the incumbent president won the election not only because he had the incumbent advantage but also because a demographic shift has been occurring among the U. S. population to advantage the Democratic Party, and the liberal party won the culture war. In addition to these, I also demonstrate that the U. S. electorate has been increasingly alienated from the Republican Party in terms of the party image as well as ideological orientation. Taken these together, I conclude that the GOP needs some party rebranding to survive in future elections.