중국-ASEAN 간 경제통합: FTA 이후의 변화를 중심으로

Abstract

본 논문은 실질이자율 평가설(Real Interest Rate Parity Theorem, RIRP)을 토대로 한 계량분석을 통해 중국과 ASEAN의 경제통합에 대한 시사점을 제시한다. 중국과ASEAN 간 경제적 교역과 교류는 중국이 WTO에 가입한 2000년 이후 빠르게 증가하는 추세이고 특히 2005년 7월 중국-ASEAN 간 FTA 발효 이후 경제 통합 현상은 더욱 심화될 것으로 전망된다. 이러한 경제통합의 실증적 분석을 위해 실질이자율평가설에 근거한 유위험이자율평가식(Uncovered Interest Parity, UIP)과 구매력 평가식(Purchasing Power Parity, PPP)에 대한 계량적 검정 및 두 지역간 상품 및 자본 시장 통합에 대한 분석을 실시한다. 검정을 통해 얻어진 결과는 대체로 자본 및 상품시장에서 모두 중국-ASEAN 간 경제통합이 FTA 이후 가속화되고 있고 특히 자본시장에 비해 상품시장의 통합이 상대적으로 급속하게 진행되고 있음을 보여준다.

This paper uses international real interest parity conditions to analyze the extent of economic integration between China and ASEAN, especially after China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement in July 2005. The two-way flows between China and ASEAN have been on a rapid increase after the China's joining of WTO in 2000 and especially after China-ASEAN FTA in 2005. The economic integration between China and ASEAN is expected to advance more rapidly and comprehensively. Uncovered interest parity condition and purchasing power parity condition based on real interest parity condition is examined to figure out whether the integration of capital market and, goods market is real in terms of econometric terms. The methodology has an advantage over using the volume of international trade and investment as a measure of economic integration. In particular, parity conditions have a foundation in macroeconomic theory and provide a benchmark of what could be expected if barriers to trade and investment between countries were low. The results of our analysis indicate that China and ASEAN were already highly integrated with respect to goods and services markets before FTA. In contrast, barriers to financial integration remained significant even before FTA. Also, they indicate that both goods and services markets appear more integrated after FTA in some countries. The integration of financial markets seems to have more room for future advancements. The impact of future liberalization mandated through WTO and the China-ASEAN FTA is expected to be pronounced in both markets.