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Two Essays on the Long-Run Relationship among Copper Production, Economic Growth, and Energy Consumption: A Case of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.advisor | 허은녕 | - |
dc.contributor.author | 큔구 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2017-07-13T08:54:52Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2017-07-13T08:54:52Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2013-08 | - |
dc.identifier.other | 000000013118 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10371/119932 | - |
dc.description | 학위논문 (박사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2013. 8. 허은녕. | - |
dc.description.abstract | The mining sector has been the main engine of the Democratic Republic of Congos (DRC) economy since its independence in 1960. This sector accounted for two-thirds of its exports and 25% of its GDP (World Bank, 2004). The revenues and other benefit streams generated by the sector, however, have not been used in a wise and/or sustainable way, largely due to the key problems with the sector governance. Until now, mining is the countrys principal industrial activity.
This dissertation includes two essays. The first essay investigates the long-run relationships among economic growth as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption, copper production, and copper price in the international market for DRC. The annual time series were utilized and spanned the years 1970-2010. The results of the study revealed that there are no long-run relationships among the aforementioned variables but that short-run relationships exist among them. The cointegration approach was used in this study. The time series properties of the data were analyzed, and a vector autoregressive model with the first difference was used to evaluate the direction of causality among the variables. The key study findings are as follows: bidirectional causality between GDP and energy consumption, unidirectional causality running from GDP to copper production, unidirectional causality running from copper production to energy consumption, and bidirectional causality between copper price and copper production. From the policy perspective, the confirmation of the feedback hypothesis between economic growth and energy consumption warns against the use of policy instruments geared towards restricting energy consumption as they may lead to adverse effects on economic growth. As the electrification rate in DRC is only 11%, it may not be feasible to reduce the energy consumption. What is needed is to make the electricity sector more efficient so that it could produce a greater output per unit of electricity used. Therefore, emphasis should be placed on supply-side options and energy efficiency than on energy-limiting policies. The unidirectional causality from copper production to energy consumption is explained by the increased demand for energy from the mining sector, which is energy-intensive. This sector experienced strong and positive growth in the last decade. Given DRCs extensive dependence on oil product imports for its national needs, to enhance the security of the countrys oil supply and to cope with the increase in the demand for energy due to the countrys mineral activities, the government should come up with energy policies focusing on reducing the countrys dependence on energy imports by prioritizing the development of domestic energy sources. This means increasing power generation by rehabilitating and upgrading the existing equipment and facilities | - |
dc.description.abstract | reinforcing the network | - |
dc.description.abstract | building new hydroelectric plants | - |
dc.description.abstract | promoting wind, solar, and geothermal energy | - |
dc.description.abstract | and pushing forward its on- and off-shore exploration of oil and gas.
The second essay investigated the effectiveness of the drivers for increasing the share of a countrys copper production in the international copper market via panel data analysis of a set of 21 countries that spanned 20 years, from 1991 to 2010. The fixed- and random-effects models were used. The determinants were categorized as governance, socioeconomic, and country-specific factors. Variables such as energy consumption, political stability and government effectiveness, and mineral rents are positively significant determinants of increase in market share. Hence, strong and stable political institutions are conditions for market share increase and thus, economic growth. The other variables, such as energy import, foreign direct investment (net inflow), and industry value added and strength to the investor protection index were not statistically significant. In terms of policy, governance plays a crucial role in increasing market share. Therefore, successful linkage development will rely on simultaneous multifactor promotion: skills, savings, business performance, government effectiveness, policy making, and implementation capacity. This means building backward and forward linkages, which requires creating a business environment and public-sector institutions that foster growth. The reform policies of the government should focus on strengthening regulation institutions through capacity building and by ensuring transparency and accountability. | - |
dc.description.tableofcontents | Abstract i
Tables of Contents v List of Tables viii List of Figures xi THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ISSUES ON COPPER PRODUCTION, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 1 Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.0 Issues and study outline 1 1.1 Objectives of the study 5 1.2 Growth models 7 1.3 Discourse on energy consumption and economic growth relationship 10 1.3.1 Role of energy 10 1.3.2 Energy consumption and economic growth relationship 11 1.4 Discourse on primary export and economic growth linkage 12 1.4.1 Role of copper 12 1.4.2 Commodity prices and economic growth 13 Chapter 2. Historical background of the DR Congo 20 2.1 Political situation the DR Congo 20 2.2 DRC's economic overview 22 2.2.1 DRC's economic performance from 1960-2000 26 2.2.2 Recent Economic Performance 30 2.3 Mineral sector in the DR Congo 32 2.3.1 Mineral deposits and production 32 2.3.2 Structure of the Economy and Copper's Contribution 45 2.3.3 Government and mineral policy in the DRC 49 2.4 Energy sector in the DR Congo 51 2.4.1 Energy potential and generation 53 2.4.2 Energy policy 62 Chapter 3. Literature Review 65 3.1 Literature on energy consumption and economic growth 65 3.2 Literature on primary export and economic growth 73 Chapter 4. Methodology and Analytical Framework 78 4.1 Introduction 78 4.2 Econometric methods 80 4.2.1 Unit root tests 81 4.2.2 Cointegration test: Johansen's procedure 85 4.2.3 VAR models and lag length selection 87 4.2.4 Granger causality test 88 4.3 Theoretical VAR-D models 89 Chapter 5. Estimation Results and Interpretation 91 5.1 Data scope 91 5.2 Empirical results 93 5.2.1 Unit root tests 93 5.2.2 Cointegration test: Johansen's procedure and lag length selection 95 5.2.3 Vector autoregressive models (VARs) 99 5.2.4 Granger causality tests 103 5.3 Empirical results interpretation 104 Chapter 6. Conclusion and Policy Implications 107 6.1 Summary 107 6.2 Key findings and policy implications 107 Recommendations for further study 110 - With Focus on the Determinants of Copper Market Share Increase from Upstream-producing Countries - 111 Chapter 7. Introduction 111 7.1 Motivations and objectives of this study 112 7.2 Study outline 113 Chapter 8. Copper and the Global Copper Market 115 8.1 Copper reserves and constraints on the copper supply 115 8.2 Major uses and end users of copper 116 8.3 Trade and exchanges of copper 117 Chapiter 9. Literature review 119 Chapter 10. Methodology and Data 123 10.1 General form of the theoretical model 123 10.1.1 Fixed- and random-effects model specifications 124 10.2 Data and variable descriptions 128 10.3 Hypotheses 132 Chapter 11. Empirical Results and Analysis 134 11.1 Results 134 11.1.1 Panel tests 139 11.2 Results analysis 142 Chapter 12. Conclusion and Policy Implications 146 12.1 Summary 146 12.2 Keys findings and policy implications for DRC as a copper producer 146 Limitations and recommendations for further study 148 References 150 Appendices 161 Appendix 1: Cointegration analysis results 161 Unit root tests using Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics (ADF) 161 Unit root tests using Philip-Perron statistics (PP) 165 Lag length selection criteria 170 Johansen cointegration tests 171 Vector Autoregression Models (VAR-D) 174 Granger causality tests. 176 Appendix 2: Panel data analysis results 178 Fixed and random effects models 178 Hausman test 181 Heteroskedasticity test 185 Abstract in Korean (국문 초록) 186 Abstract in French (불어 초록) 189 Acknowledgement 192 | - |
dc.format | application/pdf | - |
dc.format.extent | 3230647 bytes | - |
dc.format.medium | application/pdf | - |
dc.language.iso | en | - |
dc.publisher | 서울대학교 대학원 | - |
dc.subject | Economic growth | - |
dc.subject | copper production | - |
dc.subject | cointegration | - |
dc.subject | mineral and energy policies | - |
dc.subject | institutions | - |
dc.subject | market share | - |
dc.subject | DRC | - |
dc.subject.ddc | 658 | - |
dc.title | Two Essays on the Long-Run Relationship among Copper Production, Economic Growth, and Energy Consumption: A Case of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) | - |
dc.type | Thesis | - |
dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthor | Kyungu Ilunga Maloba | - |
dc.description.degree | Doctor | - |
dc.citation.pages | ix, 193 | - |
dc.contributor.affiliation | 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공 | - |
dc.date.awarded | 2013-08 | - |
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