Prediction of phenological changes of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under global warming
지구온난화 환경에서 이화명나방의 발생 변화 예측

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dc.description학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 농생명공학부, 2014. 8. 이준호.-
dc.description.abstract본 연구에서는 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오, 이화명나방과 벼의 발생 모델을 사용하여 지구온난화에따른이화명나방의 발생 변화 대해 연구하였다. 이화명나방은 벼의 중요한 해충으로 벼 줄기를 마르게 하거나 백수현상을 일으킨다. 이화명나방은 과거 1970년대 벼품종과 농법의 변화로 그 풍부도가 급감하였고, 남쪽지역에서만 때때로 문제가 되었다. 지구온난화에 따른 발생 변화를 예측하기 위해 이화명나방 발생모델을 작성하였다. 발생모델을 작성하기 위해 온도 의존적인 발육 및 산란 실험이 각각 6가지(20, 23, 26, 29, 32, 35 oC),4가지 (15, 20, 25, 30 oC)온도에서 수행되었다. 각 단계별 발육속도는 Logan 6 모델을 사용하여 추정되었고, 발육 완료율은 Weibull 식을 사용하여 추정되었다. 또한 벼발생모델을 사용하여 벼의 발생 변화를 예측하였다. 모델 구동 결과 지구온난화는 이화명나방의 발생시기를 앞당기고 벼의 이앙시기를 늦출 것으로 예측되었다. 지구온난화 조건에서 새롭게 우화한 성충의 유입시기는 2000년대 171.4일에서 2050년대 160.4일, 2090년대 148.6일까지 앞당겨질 것으로 예측되었다. 반면 중생종 벼의 경우 최적 이앙시기는 2000년대 139.6일에서 2050년대 166.7일, 2090년대 194.1일까지 늦춰질 것으로 예측되었다. 국내 12지역에서 개체군의 밀도 변화를 추정하기 위해 겨울철 생존율과 환경조건(온도,상대습도)과의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 상관 분석 결과 미래의 온도와 강수량의 증가로 인해 겨울철 생존율은 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 하지만, 발생 모델 구동 결과 미래에는 기주식물과 발생시기의 불일치가 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 따라서, 1화기 이화명나방의 경우 논에서 정착하기 어려울 것이다. 반면, 이화명나방은 겨울철 생존율의 증가로 대체기주에서는 좀 더 성공적으로 정착이 가능할 것이다. 따라서, 미래에는 대체기주의 관리 및 대체기주로부터 논까지의 거리가 중요할 것으로 사료된다.-
dc.description.abstractPhenological changes of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) under global warming was examined by using the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, and phenology models of C. suppressalis and rice. C. suppressalis is an important rice insect pest which causes drying and white heads of rice. Although C. suppressalis declined significantly in abundance since 1970s because of changes in rice cultivars and agricultural practices, it has been a problem occasionally in the southern region. A phenology model of C. suppressalis was developed for predicting its phenological change under global warming. For developing a phenology model, development and oviposition experiments for C. suppressalis were conducted at six constant temperatures (20, 23, 26, 29, 32, and 35oC) and four constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, and 30oC), respectively. Developmental rates of each life stage were fitted by the Logan 6 model and cumulative proportions of completion of each life stage were fitted by the Weibull function. Rice phenological change was predicted by a rice phenology model. Global warming advanced phenology of C. suppressalis and delayed the rice transplanting time. Newly emerged adult flight time was advanced from Julian day 171.4 in the 2000s to 160.4 in the 2050s and 148.6 in the 2090s. In contrast, the optimal rice transplanting time of the medium maturing cultivar was delayed from Julian day 139.6 in 2000s to 166.7 in 2050s, and 194.1 in 2090s. Correlation analysis between winter survival rate and climatic factors (temperature, and relative humidity) was conducted for predicting changes in population density of C. suppressalis in 12 sites. The winter survival rate appears to increase because of temperature and precipitation increasing in the future. However, the phenology simulation results predict that asynchrony between spring adult occurrence of C. suppressalis and rice significantly increases in the future. Therefore, C. suppressalis may be hard to establish in the rice field, especially for the first generation. However, C. suppressalis may more successfully establish in alternative host plants because of winter survival rate increase. In the conclusion, management alternative host plant and distance from alternative host plant to the rice field will be important in the future.-
dc.description.tableofcontentsList of Contents

Abstract I
List of contents IV
List of Tables VII
List of Figures IX

I. Introduction 1

II. Literature review 4
2-1. Chilo suppressalis (Walker) 4
2-2. Insect phenology model 5
2-3. Rice phenology model 6

III. Materials and Methods 7
3-1. Estimation of C. suppressalis phenology 7
3-1-1. Monitoring of spring flight in fields 7
3-1-2. Spring flight model 7
3-1-3. Development experiment 8
3-1-4. Oviposition experiment 10
3-1-5. Temperature-dependent development and oviposition model 10
3-1-6. Phenology model simulation 12
3-2. Rice phenology estimation 15
3-2-1. Rice phenology model 15
3-2-2. Optimal transplanting date estimation 16
3-3. Phenological changes in C. suppressalis and rice 18
3-3-1. Climate data 18
3-3-2. Asynchrony of C. suppressalis and rice 18
3-3-3. Phenological changes 19
3-4. Winter survival rate change 20
3-4-1. Climate and winter survival rate data 20
3-4-2. Correlation with climate data 23

IV. Results 24
4-1. Phenology model of C. suppressalis 24
4-1-1. Spring flight model of C. suppressalis 24
4-1-2. Temperature-dependent development model 29
4-1-3. Oviposition model 35
4-1-4. C. suppressalis phenology model 35
4-2. Rice phenology model 39
4-2-1. Optimal transplanting time of rice 39
4-3. Changes in C. suppressalis and rice under global warming 39
4-3-1. Phenological changes 39
4-3-2. Asynchrony of C. suppressalis and rice 45
4-3-3. Winter survival rate 45

V. Discussion 51
5-1. Phenological changes of C. suppressalis under global warming 51
5-2. Population density of C. suppressalis under global warming 54
5-3. Management of C. suppressalis in the rice field 56

VI. Literature Cited 58

Abstract in Korean 69
Appendix 71
Acknowledgments in Korean 81
dc.format.extent3739963 bytes-
dc.publisher서울대학교 대학원-
dc.subjectRCP 8.5-
dc.subjecttemperature-dependent model-
dc.subjectrice model-
dc.subjectphenological asynchrony-
dc.titlePrediction of phenological changes of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under global warming-
dc.title.alternative지구온난화 환경에서 이화명나방의 발생 변화 예측-
dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthorHYO SEOK LEE-
dc.citation.pagesXI, 82-
dc.contributor.affiliation농업생명과학대학 농생명공학부-
Appears in Collections:
College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (농업생명과학대학)Dept. of Agricultural Biotechnology (농생명공학부)Theses (Master's Degree_농생명공학부)
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