From the Intra-party Conflicts to Party-switching: A Research on Ozawa's Defection from the DPJ

Abstract

Since its foundation in 1996, the Democratic Party of Japan enlarged its size by absorbing opposition politicians from various backgrounds and developed as a catch-all party. For this reason, intra-party cleavages were not new to the DPJ politicians. The leaders of the DPJ managed these intra-party cleavages relatively well until 2009 when the party came into power. However, after becoming a ruling party, intra-party conflicts started to intensify over the revision of the manifesto advocated in the 2009 general election. Therefore, this thesis tried to explain intra-party conflicts within the DPJ and find factors which made Ozawa defect from the DPJ. Of all four alternatives which explain intra-party conflicts, the combination of policy-seeking and power struggle options were the factors which made Ozawa defect from the DPJ. For example, since the DPJs original contents of the 2009 manifesto were mainly based on Ozawas political ideas, Ozawa had full control over the partys policy direction. In addition, Ozawa, as a secretary-general, was able to have considerable influence on party management. Therefore, Ozawa was able to achieve both policy-seeking and power-seeking goals under the Hatoyama administration. However, with the advent of the Kan administration, Ozawa started losing his influence since Kan took anti-Ozawa lines. Regarding policy direction, the DPJs policy under the Kan cabinet was slightly changed, but it still maintained the original DPJs manifesto. Therefore, Ozawa could compromise with policy direction under the Kan cabinet, while he lost his influence on party management. On the other hand, under the Noda administration, the situation was opposite. Because of Nodas concern for intra-party harmony, Ozawa regained his power up to a certain point. However, policy direction of the DPJ became similar to that of the LDP. In this situation, Ozawa still remained in the DPJ as a veto power although he realized he could achieve only one preference – power. However, when he realized that he could not achieve any of his preferences in the party, Ozawa decided to leave the DPJ. This thesis not only examines Ozawas behavior, but it also analyzes behaviors of the Ozawa group members trying to explain why some members followed Ozawa while some decided to remain in the DPJ. Therefore, decisions of the Ozawa group were made based on politicians loyalty to Ozawa and electoral bases condition. Those who were loyal supporters of Ozawa and those politicians who had relatively weak electoral bases joined Ozawas new party. On the other hand, those who had relatively stable electoral bases did not join Ozawas new party, rather they remained in the ruling party. In short, both Ozawas defection and the decisions of the Ozawa group members were the result of their rational choice based on their own calculation.