Essays on the Economics of Immigration: Economic Assimilation, Labor Market Effect, and Selective Out-migration in Korea

Abstract

본 연구는 외국인들의 경제적 동화, 이민의 노동시장 효과, 선택적 출국 등 이민경제학에서 중요한 세 가지 주제를 다루고 있다. 법무부와 통계청의 허가를 받아 공공용 데이터보다 더욱 자세한 수준의 자료를 얻어 위의 세 가지 주제에 대한 국내에서 최초로 엄밀한 분석을 시행하였다. 첫 번째 논문은 외국인들의 경제적 동화에 관련된 논문으로 외국인과 내국인 간의 임금격차 변화를 동화의 속도로 정의하였다. 분석결과, 외국인이 한국 노동시장에 처음 진입했을 때는 비슷한 인적자본을 가진 내국인에 비해 15% 정도 낮은 임금을 받지만 체류기간이 1 년 증가할 때마다 0.44%씩 임금 격차가 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 경제적 동화의 패턴은 성별, 출신국가별로 다르게 나타났다. 남성, 아시아 출신의 경우 전체 분석표본과 유사하게 초기에는 내국인보다 낮은 임금을 받지만 시간이 지나면서 격차가 조금씩 감소하였다. 반면, 비아시아 및 일본 출신과 전문인력은 입국 초기에는 비슷한 교육이나 경력을 가진 내국인보다 임금이 높았지만 시간이 지나면서 상대적 임금이 감소하였다. 여성은 한국 체류기간이 임금에 미치는 영향이 없는 것으로 나타났고 초기 임금격차가 내국인과 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 두 번째 논문은 외국인력 유입이 동일한 인적자본을 가진 내국인의 고용과 임금에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 외국인이 내국인의 임금과 고용에 미치는 영향이 전체 표본에 대해서는 통계적으로 유의하게 나타나지 않았지만, 학력별 분석에서는 고졸 미만은 임금 상승률 감소, 대학교육 이상에서는 임금 상승률 증가의 효과가 나타났다. 고졸 미만의 경우 내·외국인의 직업 분포가 매우 유사한 반면 대학교육 이상은 서로 다른 직업군에서 일하기 때문에 이렇게 이질적인 효과가 나타났을 수 있다. 대학교육 이상에 한해 외국인 유입에 대해서 내국인 임금에 대한 효과가 긍정적으로 나타나는 것은 서로 다른 직업군에 종사하여 보완성을 가지기 때문이다. 세 번째 논문은 행정자료와 서베이자료를 연결하여 외국인에 영향을 줄 수 있는 요인들에 대해서 분석하였다. 특히, 한국에서 받는 임금에 집중하여 분석하였는데 전체 분석표본에 대해서는 임금이 출국확률에 미치는 영향이 통계적으로 유의하지 않았다. 출신국가별, 체류자격별 분석을 통해서 이 결과에 대한 상당한 이질성이 발견되었는데 비아시아 및 일본과 전문인력의 경우 임금이 높은 외국인이 출국할 확률이 높았고 나머지는 전체 표본과 동일하게 임금이 미치는 영향이 발견되지 않았다.

The collection of essays studies three critical issues in immigration economics: Economic Assimilation, Labor Market Effect, and Selective Out-migration in Korea. We provide the first reliable evidence on each topic in Korea using high-quality micro and administrative data. Chapter 1 investigates the size of the initial wage disadvantages as well as the patterns of subsequent labor-market assimilation of foreign workers in Korea. Using rich and confidential-use micro-level data obtained from the Survey on Immigrants Living Conditions and Labour Force (SILC-LF) and the Regional Employment Survey (RES) for the period 2013–2018, we offer comprehensive evidence regarding the trends in the earnings of immigrants in Korea. We find that immigrants in Korea earn 15% less upon arrival than natives with similar characteristics. We estimate that the wage gap between foreign and native workers diminishes by 0.44% per year spent in Korea. The patterns of assimilation differ by both gender and country of origin. Males and Asian immigrants generally follow the patterns of all foreign workers. Conversely, females reveal a smaller initial wage difference and no convergence, while immigrants from non-Asian countries and Japan initially earn higher wages than natives and then experience a relative decline in wages over time. We suggest that the observed patterns of immigrants assimilation are driven by changes in the prices of human capital attributes with the duration of stay in Korea. Newly arrived immigrants are heavily concentrated in the lower segment of the wage distribution when compared to natives with similar characteristics, which provides evidence of the downgrading of their human capital. Due to a lack of cultural understanding, poor language skills, and information deficiency with regard to the Korean labor market, the human capital accumulated by immigrants in their source countries is not easily transferable to the Korean labor market. As the returns for the human capital of foreign and native workers converge over time, wage differences by nativity diminish. Chapter 2 studies the impact of immigration on native labor market outcomes in Korea. We place native and immigrant workers into education-experience cells and exploit the variation in the inflows of immigrants across skill groups. Then, we examine how the immigration inflows in particular skill groups are associated with the labor market outcomes of natives in the same skill group. Our results add to the literature by providing non-US and non-European evidence, given that Korea has the fast-growing immigrant population and continued demand for foreign workforce. The results indicate that immigration has no harmful effect on the wage and employment of natives, on average. However, there is a great heterogeneity of wage effects across education groups; high school dropouts suffer from the adverse effects, whereas the effects for college graduates are positive. There was a 0.2-0.3 p.p. decrease in wage growth rate for high school dropouts and 1.3-1.4 p.p. increase for college graduates for 1 p.p. increase in immigrant share. We find the potential explanation for these differential effects from the suggestive evidence on the degree of substitution. Specifically, we examine the similarity of occupational distribution between natives and immigrants. While the least-educated natives and immigrants have almost identical occupation distributions, high-educated natives are likely to work in different occupational segments from the corresponding immigrants. In other words, least-educated natives and immigrants are more substitutable than high-educated natives and immigrants are. In Chapter 3, we examine whether high or low wage immigrants leave faster Korea. In terms of labor migration, the Korean government has two opposite policy initiatives: the principle of temporary circular migration of low skilled versus rapid access to permanent status for highly skilled. Despite the importance of accurate research on selectivity in out-migration in Korea, empirical evidence has been rather rare due to data limitation. Using administrative data and microdata from the Survey on Immigrant's Living Conditions and Labour Force (SILC-LF), we found no association between wages in Korea and out-migration hazard. Separate estimations by area of the region and visa type indicate heterogeneous effects of wages. While the same pattern is observed in Asian, non-professional employees, students, and residents with that observed in the all immigrants, Non-Asian and Japanese and professional immigrants are found to be positively selected. The evidence for positive selection in out-migration for professional employees implies suggests a mismatch between Korean immigration policy, which intends to attract and retain highly skilled immigrants, and realities. It is critical to understand why skilled immigrants leave to achieve the policy goal. One possible explanation is that Korea can be considered as intermediary countries to the final destination for skilled migrants. Migrants may enter Korea, which is likely to be easier to enter, first and use Korea as a stepping stone to their preferred destinations, such as other Asian developed countries or Western countries. Even if skilled migrants did not plan to a third-country destination before coming to Korea, they can move wherever the economic prospects are the highest since their human capital and skills are globally transferable.