Assessing Chinas Intentions: Power, Uncertainty, and Subjectivity

Abstract

Americans are increasingly assessing China as a revisionist power rather than as a status quo power. What makes them perceive that China has revisionist intentions? This is an important question given that both, jointly forming the Group of Two (G2), are great powers. This study argues that three factors contribute to Americans negative assessment of Chinas intentions: increasing economic and military power, uncertainty over Chinas plans of actions, and Americans subjective interpretation of Chinas military and nonmilitary actions. Regardless of Chinas true intentions, Chinas rapid increase in military and economic capabilities combined with high uncertainty about its intentions create the space for subjective interpretation of Chinas actions, which contributes to Americans negative interpretation of Chinas behavior. The current tension between China and the United States over the South China Sea illustrates how the three variables contributes to Americans increasingly negative assessment of Chinas intentions.