Comparison of tumor regression grade and clinical stage based on MRI image as a selection criterion for non-radical management after concurrent chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer: a multicenter, retrospective, cross-sectional study

Abstract

Purpose There has been no comparative study on the clinical value of magnetic resonance tumor regression grade (mrTRG)1-2 and ycT0-1N0 for the prediction of ypT0-1N0 after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) for rectal cancer. We compared the diagnostic performance between mrTRG1-2 and ycT0-1N0 for predicting ypT0-1N0 as a selection criterion for non-radical management after CCRT in locally advanced rectal cancer. Methods This retrospective study enrolled 291 patients from three referral hospitals between January 2018 and March 2020. The diagnostic performance of ycT0-1N0 and mrTRG1-2 for the prediction of ypT0-1N0 was compared in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value, negative-predictive value, and area under the curve (AUC). Results Sixty-eight patients (23.4%) achieved ypT0-1N0. Nineteen patients (6.5%) had ycT0-1N0, and 91 patients (31.2%) had mrTRG1-2. For predicting ypT0-1N0, ycT0-1N0 had a sensitivity of 16.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.36-27.10) and positive-predictive value of 57.9% (95% CI: 36.57-76.63), while mrTRG1-2 had a sensitivity of 58.8% (95% CI: 46.23-70.63) and positive-predictive value of 44.0% (95% CI: 36.46-51.74). When predicting ypT0-1N0, mrTRG1-2 showed a higher AUC (0.680, 95% CI: 0.604-0.756) than ycT0-1N0 (0.563, 95% CI: 0.481-0.645) (P < 0.001). Conclusion mrTRG1-2 might be a better indicator than ycT0-1N0 for the selection of non-radical management of advanced rectal cancer post-CCRT. However, additional diagnostic tools are required for predicting ypT0-1N0 because mrTRG1-2 or yc stage on MRI has insufficient evidence for diagnosing ypT0-1N0.