Loosening or Tightening the Linchpin? The Effects of Chinas Approach to US THAAD Deployment in South Korea

Abstract

Chinas coercive response to the 2016 deployment of the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system in South Korea has been dubbed as its attempt to loosen the linchpin of the ROK–US alliance. By reviewing the post-THAAD changes in South Koreas THAAD deployment and strategic debates in the domestic sphere, this paper seeks to study the effects of Chinas coercion on South Koreas security choices. This paper is structured in two parts: First, how and to what extent has Chinas coercion caused procedural changes in the THAAD-related decision-making process, policy content, and the ultimate change in the decision on THAAD? Second, how have key actors overall perceptions and rhetoric about China changed after the THAAD turmoil? The main findings of this study suggest that Chinas coercion has caused a hardening than loosening of the security linchpin of the ROK-US alliance.