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The burden of heat-related stroke mortality under climate change scenarios in 22 East Asian cities
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Zhou, Lu | - |
dc.contributor.author | He, Cheng | - |
dc.contributor.author | Kim, Ho | - |
dc.contributor.author | Honda, Yasushi | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lee, Whanhee | - |
dc.contributor.author | Hashizume, Masahiro | - |
dc.contributor.author | Chen, Renjie | - |
dc.contributor.author | Kan, Haidong | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-04-18T06:29:34Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2023-04-18T06:29:34Z | - |
dc.date.created | 2022-12-21 | - |
dc.date.created | 2022-12-21 | - |
dc.date.created | 2022-12-21 | - |
dc.date.created | 2022-12-21 | - |
dc.date.created | 2022-12-21 | - |
dc.date.issued | 2022-12 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Environment International, Vol.170, p. 107602 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0160-4120 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10371/190113 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Background: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in East Asia. Owing to the aging population and high prevalence of stroke, East Asia might suffer a disproportionately heavy burden of stroke under the changing climate. However, the evidence relevant is still limited in this area. Objective: To evaluate the stroke mortality risk due to heat exposure in East Asia and predict its burden under various future climate change scenarios.Methods: We conducted a multi-center observational study and collected data from 22 representative cities in three main East Asian countries (i.e., China, Japan, and South Korea) from 1972 to 2015. The two-stage time -series analyses were applied to estimate the effects of heat on stroke mortality at the regional and country level. We further projected the burden of heat-related stroke mortality using 10 global climate models (GCMs) under four shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios, including SSP1-RCP1.9, SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios.Results: In the present study, a total of 287,579 stroke deaths were collected during the warm season. Heat was significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke mortality. Overall, compared with the 2010 s, the heat -related attributable fraction (AF) was projected to increase in the 2090 s, with increments ranging from 0.8 % to 7.5 % across various climate change scenarios. The heat-related AF was projected to reach 11.9 % (95 % empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 6.1 %, 17.5 %) in the 2090 s under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario in China, while the corresponding estimates were 6.6 % (95 % eCI: 2.5 %, 11.0 %) and 5.1 % (95 % eCI: 1.2 %, 9.1 %) for Japan and South Korea, respectively.Conclusions: Climate change will exacerbate the burden of heat-related stroke mortality but with considerable geographical heterogeneity in East Asia. | - |
dc.language | 영어 | - |
dc.publisher | Elsevier Ltd. | - |
dc.title | The burden of heat-related stroke mortality under climate change scenarios in 22 East Asian cities | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107602 | - |
dc.citation.journaltitle | Environment International | - |
dc.identifier.wosid | 000882398800011 | - |
dc.identifier.scopusid | 2-s2.0-85140806320 | - |
dc.citation.startpage | 107602 | - |
dc.citation.volume | 170 | - |
dc.description.isOpenAccess | Y | - |
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor | Kim, Ho | - |
dc.type.docType | Article | - |
dc.description.journalClass | 1 | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | TIME-SERIES | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | RISK | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | EXTREMES | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | EXPOSURE | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Climate change | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Disease burden | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Heat | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Stroke | - |
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